Here we are, another new year and another set of bold predictions! I’ve been doing this for a while now and it’s always a fun little test and time capsule. In previous years, I’d do a post before the new predictions where I would go over the previous year’s, see how right or wrong I was and do a little scoring thing. I’ve decided to do away with that as it takes a while to write and it’s easy enough to just look at last year’s predictions and if you are a regular reader, you probably know the answer to most of them already. I actually did pretty good last year. Some of my predictions were only came half true and a few I was dead wrong on but I did well with a number as well. Not that many of them were positive though so I kind of wish I was more wrong.
As usual, almost all of these are focused around gaming or tech, mostly because I don’t like to guess at politics or world events because, as the last couple of years have shown, there’s a lot of things no one saw coming. I had fewer predictions last year than the year before and actually have even fewer this year. Though to be fair, a couple of those were easy ones or repeats from previous years I kept in to be snarky and I’ve tried to eliminate those. I’d love to hear what your own predictions for the year are! Leave them in the comments and let’s see whose right!
- Virtual reality will not be a hit. The Oculus Rift, HTC Vive and PlayStation VR units are all due to ship this year. I have a bigger post coming at some point on this subject but while the hype among enthusiasts is undeniable and strong, VR is not going to even scratch the mainstream for some time. It’s too hard to demo, expensive, cumbersome and right now, you need a beast of a PC to use it at all. These are all things that can be overcome with time and I think all the manufacturers know this. However, in 2016, only wealthy nerds will be in on it.
- Star Citizen will experience significant turmoil. It’s now raised over 9 figures of financing and aside from some horribly running demo sections, isn’t even close to a state kind of sort of resembling maybe being ready to ship. Admittedly, all anyone knows about the state of this project is rumours but those include a massive cash burn rate, frustrated staff and several high profile team departures. Chris Roberts hasn’t been in the games business for a long time and frankly, looks like Tim Schafer if given the most insane of budgets. I think the big backers of this are in for a rough ride.
- A new AAA IP will come out this year that will be a surprise hit. New AAA IPs are rare enough these days but several are coming with more rumoured now that the public has shown with new console sales that yes, they do want this stuff. A couple are already known about for this year and while it usually takes a couple of sequels for them to get big, I think one of these will greatly defy expectations with its first iteration.
- The Division will release when Assassin’s Creed normally would. That series will take a year off. Assassin’s Creed: Unity was a disaster and while I thought Syndicate had major issues, most reviewers thought it was great. By all accounts though, it’s sold very poor by series standards. The Division is the long-delayed “next big thing” for Ubisoft and I think they’re going to position that as their Fall tent pole this year and will finally give Assassin’s Creed a year to breathe and maybe figure out how to write a coherent story.
- Watch_Dogs 2 will be announced this year with a release date of early 2017. I didn’t think Watch_Dogs was as bad as many did but it sold very well and a sequel is inevitable. Ubisoft’s been silent about it but I think this is the year they trot it out. Far Cry: Primal is their big Q1 release and I think Watch_Dogs 2 will be that for next year.
- The newly re-independent People Can Fly will announce their first title is a new Bulletstorm game but it will be a smaller, digital only release. People Can Fly bought themselves back from Epic Games last year and they haven’t said anything since. They own the Bulletstorm IP and it’s rumoured to be their first title. The first game undersold expectations so if they do make another one, I doubt it would be a AAA retail release. Whatever they do with Bulletstorm, I’ll play it.
- Another well known Japanese publisher will announce they are leaving the video game business. Konami didn’t so much leave the industry as set the bridge on fire as they left. The console and traditional handheld business in Japan isn’t healthy and a lot of big publishers there are trying to figure out what to do as a niche western audience alone can’t sustain them. Capcom can’t decide if they just want to be in the remasters business and several big developers have been swallowed up by mobile companies. I think a publisher whose name hardcore gamers would recognise will leave the “big games” space.
- Psychonauts 2 will experience its first major setback and there will be more layoffs at Double Fine. Tim Schafer is a lousy business man and Double Fine is a company that has repeatedly demonstrated a lack of respect for their crowdfunding supporters, yet they went back to the well again with Psychonauts 2. Nearly every project they’ve been involved in since 2010 has had major mishaps, yet it looks like a legion of fools are lining up to support Psychonauts 2. Even though it isn’t due to ship for quite a while, the first signs of a major mishap with this project will happen this year and it will come with another reduction at Double Fine.
- Steam Machines will quietly be shelved but SteamOS will continue. Steam Machines have been a colossal flop and SteamOS is a mess. No one wants to pay a pile of money for an underpowered PC, running an OS that can only play a fraction of the Steam catalogue and which runs most games like garbage compared to Windows. Valve’s invested too much time, money and PR into SteamOS to shelve it and it’ll continue to improve but the branded Steam Machines initiative will be killed off or lose so much vendor support as to be even more irrelevant.
- Valve will announce a second Steam Controller model that’s closer but not exactly like a traditional controller. It will release along side the current model. Aside from a few fans, the Steam Controller is a bust and most people think it’s notably worse than traditional controllers. Again, Valve’s put too much into it to abandon it but I think they will release a new model more closely resembling what gamers recognise to try to hedge their bets.
- No Man’s Sky will be delayed to 2017 but launch with PlayStation VR support. This is a project whose ambition is massive but it’s also being made by a tiny team and I just don’t think they’ll make it out this year. Sony has been behind this game in a big way and I’ve no doubt they’d love it to work with PlayStation VR. That will be the carrot Hallo Games puts on the stick of the delay.
- Nintendo will announce the NX but it won’t ship this year. It will also be another unique gimmick system that inspires doubt. The Wii U is still a flop but I really don’t think Nintendo will ship a new system the same year they announce it. They also can’t just make another system like the Xbox and PS4 as that’s a market they already lost with the GameCube. They have to make something totally out of left field if they want to stay in hardware. As all of these systems do, it will inspire doubt as to its viability.
- At least one well known indie developer or small team studio will close. The term Indieocalypse has been thrown around in the last year. The indie games space is incredibly overcrowded, far more than AAA and only getting more so since platforms like Steam are useless at helping people determine what is and isn’t crap. It’s just not possible for all these games to succeed, not even all the good ones. This is the year it starts claiming some high profile victims.
- The mobile games market will continue to consolidate around a handful of successful, scummy titles and the rest will flounder. This largely happened in 2015 but it will get even worse this year. Anything that isn’t a microtransaction factory like Game of War, Candy Crush, Clash of Clans or one of the billion clones of these games gets buried and quality mobile games with fair business models are few and far between. Mobile games are designed around people who don’t really care about games and this will get worse.
- EA or Ubisoft will acquire a well known mobile developer. Activision bought King last year, partly as a tax evasion strategy but also because they want some of that sweet microtransaction money. Many of the previously well known mobile developers like Rovio are now starting to struggle as they largely missed the boat on this trend. EA’s well entrenched in mobile already but I’m sure would love to get bigger and Ubisoft I’m sure would love one of these big players in their stable.
- Harmonix will either be acquired or undergo a significant reduction. I feel bad for this company. They rode a huge high during the music game era, then got kicked out by their parent company for a song. They’ve done a bunch of smaller experimental games that didn’t seem to garner much interest and by all accounts, Rock Band 4 has been pretty much a flop and they’ve lost several well known staff members. I don’t know how much longer they can keep this up and their vulture capital backers must be getting frustrated. I suspect they’ll be sold off to another company (my guess is Ubisoft as they could compliment Rocksmith) or significantly downsize to try to stay in the game.
- The outrage based press will double down on this strategy and it will continue to fail them. This has already been happening. Not knowing any other way to get clicks, they are continuing to get crazier, more arrogant and more hateful of their audience. The thing is, it’s not working. Their traffic continues to decline and they continue to amp up the clickbait to try and counter it. It’s not going to work and those sites that keep this up will keep sinking. And they deserve to.
- GamerGate as a movement will continue to wane in numbers but will continue to be the stand-in for politically correct outrage. GamerGate still exists but it’s completely lost any focus as a consumer revolt and most of what’s left is the lunatic fringe that is as eager to be offended at every perceived slight as the other side is. However, it’s also become a universal term for any outrage based outlet that’s looking to make a point at how evil anyone is who doesn’t think in lockstep with them. We’re going to see the movement become less relevant but definitely not the term.
- At least one prominent “games journalist” will become a full-time YouTuber. I think this is inevitable truth be told, it’s already happened. The major games site don’t pay decently, many of the journalists already see the writing on the wall and many have managed to get huge follower numbers on their personal YouTube channels because they’re able to use their press privilege to create an audience with no effort or without having to put out actual quality content. My guess is that Patrick Klepek will be the one to do this first but it could be any number of them.
- An “old guard” Giant Bomb personality will leave the site. My guess is Alex Navarro or Jeff Gerstmann. I’m still about as big a fan of Giant Bomb as they come–the people, I think the community is awful–but I’ll say it, the site has been a fraction of its former self since we lost Ryan Davis. Alex Navarro doesn’t seem to actually do much there any more. He sits in on the Beastcast and a couple of videos a week but barely writes anything any more. It feels like he’s just lost his passion for this in the last couple of years. He’s also friends with all the big outrage writers and it really feels like he’d be more at home at a place like Polygon or The Verge, possibly writing about something other than games. As for Jeff, he used to be one of the most energetic, flamboyant personalities at the site and has become it’s biggest drag. He seems to hate about 85% of all games that come out now and after listening to their Game of the Year podcasts, I can think of less than 5 he actually enjoyed. When the things he most gets excited about are clicker games and WWE Supercard, something is up. Since Ryan passed, he seems to just be going through the motions and seems to actively dislike what he does. I don’t know what he’d do if he left but I don’t see how he stays around when he’s this cynical. He’s also getting married soon and maybe then, he’ll choose to just do something else with his new family.
- Smartphone sales will drop across the board and Apple’s financials will take a hit from it. Many analysts have already predicted this and while I think most analysts are full of it, you can already see this trend starting with other manufacturers. Smartphones have long surpassed the point of innovation where people want to upgrade them every year. Given that Apple is a smartphone company first and everything else a distant second, this is going to sting them.
- BlackBerry will finally announce that they’re leaving the smartphone business. By all accounts, their new Android based devices are kind of neat but I think they’re also ridiculous. BlackBerry was supposed to be transitioning to a software and services company and the aforementioned downturn in smartphones will push them over. Seriously guys, you lost phones, just let it go.
- PC sales will finally normalise. The PC market experienced some large declines, then a bit of an upswing and has been contracting again. The reasons for this are the same reasons smartphone sales are slowing, it just happened sooner. That’s the reason it’s going to normalise first.
- Sharp will be bought out. This company has been hemorrhaging for years as their TV business bleeds the rest of it dry. By all accounts, they can’t survive much longer at the rate they’re going. They have too many technologies and customers to go under though so I think a bigger Japanese, or possibly even Korean or Chinese company will save them in some form.
- Smart watch sales will continue to decline. Smart watches were invented to distract from the fact that smartphone sales are dropping and the manufacturers have run out of ideas. Aside from the initial fanboy bump for the Apple Watch, these things seem to have all landed with a thud. People don’t want to pay hundreds of dollars for a device that poorly emulates some of the functions the $700 device they have 6 inches away already does.
- Sony will announce an exit or spinoff from one of their major traditional businesses. Sony is mildly profitable again, thanks largely to the PS4 and a weak yen but they’re still a company in bad shape. It’s similar to Sharp’s situation, except Sony was more diversified and able to weather it better. Personally, I think they’re either finally going to drop TVs or maybe one of their media businesses such as records or movies. Something big has to go though.
- Reddit will be sold or have a major investment and will continue sweeping policy changes. The disaster that was Ellen Pao’s tenure at the company was orchestrated in my opinion. Reddit has never made money and I think has given up on doing that independently. They clearly see a path to investment or sale in making it a more mainstream friendly place, even though that’s never how it’s been before. Personally, I think they’re in for another Digg-style revolt but that’ll come later.
- Rumours of a sale of Twitter will emerge but it won’t happen this year. They will also introduce some kind of paid feature and no one will care. Speaking of companies that have never made money. Their stock price is tanking and they’re losing users because of their complete unwillingness to evolve their platform and deal with the major problems it’s causing. Their last step in countering this before going on the block will be to add something they can charge people for. However, no one’s asking for that and I doubt many will want to pay for some add-on when the core of the service is still so awful.
- YouTube Red will expand to more countries but few will care. I’m not sure how well YouTube Red is doing. A few prominent YouTubers have said their incomes have gone up (which makes sense since like everything else, it’s designed to benefit what’s already popular) but YouTube has also not been boasting about its success which these days, is usually a sign of underperformance. It’s only in the US right now so obviously, they’ll want to reach a bigger audience but I still think it’s a poor value for the user. Paying to remove ads, which people can and already do for free isn’t going to be a hit.
Finally, I have one prediction left that didn’t fit into either of these categories:
- People will start to tire of the Marvel universe. Disney is pushing way too hard on this stuff. There are about a billion different TV shows and movies and more coming and yeah, I’ll say it, they’re decent but all middling quality for the masses. I already know people who were deeply invested in this stuff who think it’s going too far and as someone who owns several Marvel films on Blu-ray, I’m not all that excited about what’s coming. You can only overexpose something like this for so long before people start to fatigue on it and I think while everything Marvel related will still do super well this year, we’re going to see people’s interest start to wane.
And there we have it for 2016! As always, I hope the negative predictions don’t come to fruition but truthfully, most of these are negative in some way so I’d be happy to be mostly wrong. I hope everyone has a great year full of happiness and prosperity and there will be plenty more content from me in 2016.