Geek Bravado

The blown hard arrogance of Parallax Abstraction.

Tag Archives: Steam

Steam’s Flickering Greenlight

I’m a huge fan of both Valve and Steam. I think Gabe Newell and many of the other employees at the company are some of the smartest in gaming and that almost every segment of this industry (and many others for that matter) can learn some valuable lessons from how they do business. That said, like anyone, they aren’t perfect. I’ve taken the piss out of them for their hypocrisy towards Windows 8 but while that’s still very true and relevant, it’s minor in the grand scheme of things. What I’m going to take this piss out of this time around is their Greenlight system, a fantastic idea that I think Valve is messing up and eroding good will from with double standards and creating an uneven playing field.

For those unfamiliar, Valve operates as a company with no titles or staff hierarchy. Boiled down to basics, no one can force you to do one particular job there. The story goes that the team at the company who handles submissions and approvals for new games on Steam was a small group that was overwhelmed with demand from developers and publishers. They didn’t want to grow the team too large for fear of diluting the work they were doing so someone invented Greenlight. The idea was to democratise indie games submissions to the site. Developers and publishers with a track record and relationships with the company would still go through the normal approval process but others who didn’t have this means would submit their projects to Greenlight, each submission getting a place for videos, screenshots and discussion. Almost like a Kickstarter for Steam approval, members of the community would vote on the games they liked and the ones that achieved an undisclosed number of votes would get approved and gain entry into a batch of 10 titles per month admitted onto the service.

It all sounds pretty cool but in a very non-Valve like fashion, the service has had many problems since launch and its value to many players is starting to be questioned.

First, it launched with the ability to both vote for and against a game, except no one understood what the negative votes meant. It also launched with no fee for developers which makes sense on paper but which quickly led to a torrent of spam and scam projects. Both of these were quickly corrected, the downvote function was removed and a $100 submission fee (donated in full to Child’s Play) was instituted within days. What has not yet been addressed is why Valve can arbitrarily decide that existing Steam partners need to be pushed back down to Greenlight. Or why certain games which are clearly of inferior quality and value to consumers can sail right through the service’s internal approval process while better titles from established developers (some of which are already in release on other platforms) set in Greenlight limbo indefinitely. This isn’t good for Steam and it certainly isn’t good for gamers.

To demonstrate the first example, I offer up Wadjet Eye Games’ Promordia. Wadjet Eye publishes point and click adventure games made in a very old school, 16-bitish graphics style. A super tight niche but one they’ve thrived in. I’ve played several of their games and enjoyed them. They also had a publisher agreement for Steam and had a number of titles released through there already. When they submitted Primordia for approval, they were told by Valve that the title “seemed like a Greenlight project”. Why? No one appears to know as no explanation was provided. Wadjet Eye had a relationship with Valve, several titles on Steam and presumably had made a number of sales, thus making both themselves and Valve money. Yet, the Valve team decided to kick Primordia back down to Greenlight for some reason. Thankfully, Wadjet Eye’s community may be small but they are very devoted so when Dave Gilbert asked his fans to go vote for the game, they immediately showed up and got it the required number within a day. Some would say this shows that the system works but to me, it shows that its unbalanced and easily rigged. I think Wadjet Eye makes great games and think Primordia deserves a place on Steam but it should have gotten that without Greenlight. Since Valve made them go there, they easily utilised an existing fan base to grab a slot in a group of 10 that could have–should have–been given to another indie title from someone else. That’s not fair to anyone.

The greater threat to Greenlight’s relevance as a community measurement of game quality is also what titles Valve does let through their internal processes without forcing them to undergo a vote. For this, I offer up Revelations 2012 and The War Z. The reason I link to TotalBiscuit videos of them will become apparent after you watch a few minutes of both. These games are without question, scam products. They were made by developers who wanted to jump on a craze and grab a quick buck from gullible, ignorant gamers for the least amount of development investment possible. They’re broken, terribly designed, bad games in every respect and yet, both sailed right through Valve’s approval process and were allowed on Steam. Revelations 2012 actually used Valve’s Source which is even grosser because apparently paying to license their now dated engine gives you guaranteed access to a coveted Steam slot, regardless of whether the game is of good quality or not. After community outrage over The War Z (which released in an incomplete state), Valve pulled that title and offered refunds to any who wanted them. Revelations 2012 is still available for purchase however. Those are only two examples but there are many more games of similarly questionable quality on Steam, all given the stamp of approval by Valve’s team.

Make no mistake, these games being on Steam after having to undergo an approval is an endorsement from Valve that they meet a certain minimum standard of quality. Sure, taste is subjective and it’s not Valve’s job to determine that but both of these games are flat out broken in many respects and offering them for sale turns a blind eye to that. Would these games have made it through a Greenlight vote? It’s possible they would have but at least in that case, the community would have said they wanted them. By approving them without Greenlight, Valve indicated they thought the games measured up and that’s not right. Meanwhile, titles like The Pinball Arcade and Incredipede have languished in Greenlight limbo for months now and will likely never get approved. These are titles that are already on sale and doing well both critically and commercially in other places, yet they remain unavailable on Steam while Revelations 2012 and many other piles of hot garbage are still there for purchase. One could argue that there clearly isn’t enough community interest since neither game was greenlit. There’s merit to that but only if the playing field is level.

I love the idea of Greenlight. Giving the power to the people to determine what games they want to see is a great thing and something that few others but Valve could manage to make work at all. However, if Valve are going to let some titles through while others are forced into Greenlight without an explanation, the playing field is not level and that removes a substantial amount of the value to the community. There’s a fine line to balance here but in my opinion, it’s also not hard. If you have previously put out a game on Steam, released it in a good functional condition and supported it, I don’t think you should necessarily have to go through Greenlight for every future title you release. But I also don’t think you should be allowed to jump the line simply because you licensed Source or because you apparently knew the right people to call to make sure you could get immediate approval, even if your game is clearly unfinished. This can all be easily resolved with clear internal policies that lay out the criteria and apply it universally. Established indies like Wadjet Eye wouldn’t be forced to Greenlight certain future games and scam artists like Dark Artz Entertainment would be forced to justify their endeavours, regardless of their engine choice. Such strict policies are somewhat contrary to the way Valve’s flat corporate structure operates though and I’m not sure how you deal with that.

Greenlight is a great thing and has great potential to offer PC gamers but every new scam title that skips it and every established indie that gets stuck in it further diminishes the community’s view of it and thus, its relevance. After some initial tweaks, Valve has done little to change Greenlight’s policies, indicating to me that they’ve either lost interest or think all is tickety boo. It isn’t and some changes are needed soon if they want to keep momentum going. Make the rules clearer, make them universal and make sure everyone has an equal chance to complete. Until then, Greenlight is better as an idea than a practice.

My Bold Predictions for 2013

Happy New Year! Alrighty, now that I’ve judged myself on my Bold Predictions for 2012 (and done not so badly overall though always with room for improvement), it’s time to spit em’ out for 2013. I’m hung over, have a sore back, haven’t slept and oh yeah, have to head back to what will be an insane merger-induced grind tomorrow so I’m actually not in a blogging mood but dammit, predictions must flow! I’m going to try to put in everything I can think of before posting this but I do these kind of off-the-cuff and with no pre-planning so I am going to reserve the right to add to the post for up to 48 hours after publishing it in case I remember anything. These are also tech and gaming predictions. I have predictions in the economic and political arenas too but these will be long enough and frankly, I don’t have the time or the energy for political arguments.

And away we go!

Gaming

  • THQ’s new private equity owner will ensure all their games in the pipe come out but the company will be split up and sold off shortly after. This is honestly a shame because despite the absolute idiocy of that company’s management (Jason Rubin being very much an exception), they’ve managed to keep a lot of talent and put out some pretty good games. That said, the AAA industry is in a state of massive flux right now (more on that later) and even the big boys can’t figure out how to reliably succeed in it so I can’t see who would want to fund another go for THQ in that arena. There’s a lot of mystery around this eleventh hour deal but from what I’ve read, it looks like vultures who want to ring out whatever profits they can from the nearly finished games in the pipe and then sell the studios and IP for some additional profit. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think I am.
  • Mobile gaming will continue to grow but the honeymoon is over. This is kind of an extension of a prediction from last year but I’m declaring it to have a bigger effect this year. I’ve banged on about how the meteoric growth of this industry (and the companies whose platforms it runs on) is a fashion trend, that the growth is unsustainable and that a big equalisation adjustment is coming as it already has in the social space. Mobile has quickly been usurped by big companies and the only games that are attaining mass scale success are from big companies with the occasional fluke like Angry Birds was. It’s a super hit driven industry just like AAA is and the press will no longer be able to ignore that as they’ve been doing for a while now. This type of gaming’s not going anywhere and that’s a good thing but this is the year reality hits and people realise it isn’t all milk, honey and guaranteed riches. Mobile will continue to exist and thrive but it’s not going to replace other ways of gaming any time soon if ever. To tie into this…
  • The general public will start to tire of free-to-play Skinner Box mechanics. This right here is why I can’t stand most mobile games. Everything’s filled with microtransactions, nags to spend money and a damn store front between every level, whether it makes design sense or not. It’s a terrible, exploitive way to design games, I hate it and I’ve already heard more than a few other people who are tired of it too. When people look at their credit card statements and realise those 5 $0.99 games they bought actually cost more like $25 in total in order to make them good and not just grind fests, they get frustrated and I think we’ll see more of that. This mechanic isn’t going away but I do think we’re going to start seeing mobile games that offer complete experiences for a higher price.
  • The WiiU will be a modest success. I’m sure Nintendo realises that much like mobile is now, the Wii’s growth was fashion driven and I’m sure they have no such expectations with the WiiU and have budgeted accordingly. I got one of these for Christmas and despite some dumb decisions they made (largely regarding patch structure, DRM and the GamePad’s battery, all of which can be fixed), this is an amazing platform that offers a lot of promise and uniqueness. This isn’t a Wii with a low-rent tablet attached and anyone who thinks so is either uninformed or more likely an Apple fanboy. I still don’t see Nintendo winning over third parties in a big way with this but as always, their own stunning developer talent will carry the WiiU to profitability.
  • The Vita will go from limping to crawling. Naming the Vita one of my disappointments of 2012 hurt because I love this thing so much. It’s incredible hardware and it’s a steal at $250 and it shows how you can do good portable gaming without compromise but no one’s making games for it. Even when they’re hurting bad though, Sony’s not one to throw in the towel and I don’t think they will here. They’ll keep pushing it and I do believe it will continue to sell small numbers and probably will never be a runaway success but I do think it will advance enough this year to keep owners like myself in some decent content. I also believe Sony’s next home system will give it a big push but more on that later.
  • Console shovelware is dead. It’s already happening and good bloody riddance! The Wii and DS were kind of the last bastions for the vulture publishers who make their living cranking out cheap, garbage games for $30-$40 in the hopes of catching suckers at Wal-Mart. The increased development costs of the new systems (which many believe to be 2-3x what they are now at a minimum) will make this slimy practice an impossible model. These publishers won’t simply move to mobile either because there’s already too much garbage in that space and because they were run by scummy businesspeople who didn’t really understand the industry as a whole, they won’t know how to adapt to the realities of the mobile market and will likely just up and die off. They deserve to rot.
  • The first major Kickstarter disaster will happen and will test people’s faith in the crowdfunding model. I think this model of funding games is brilliant and I spent way too much on Kickstarters this year. However, at least one of these projects is either not going to come out and zero out everybody’s “investment” or it will come out, be far below the majority’s expectations and people will feel ripped off. There have just been too many projects and a big portion of those are fuelled by rose-tinted nostalgic expectations. I know I’m probably going to hate at least a couple of the finished projects that I backed. No disrespect to Brian Fargo and I so hope Wasteland 2 is killer but inXile’s track record is not good. The Peter Molyneux and David Braben projects are also just gross and while perfectly legit, abuse the Kickstarter spirit in my opinion. The thing is, I fully knew what I was getting into when I backed them and the whole point of Kickstarter and that you roll the dice and take your chances. Most people don’t know that though or they say they do but don’t really mean it. When one of these games comes out to poor reviews or worse yet, doesn’t come out at all, a lot of people are going to feel burned and run away from crowdfunding. The people that do get it will continue to make it a viable means of indie development which is awesome but much like mobile, we’re still in the honeymoon phase.
  • The OUYA will come out and find niche success. I don’t really think the OUYA folks believe this is going to be the thing that overtakes Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo but I also think the fanboy press who largely hated on this thing not because of it’s ideas but because it’s Android and called it no less than a scam were dead wrong. None of them will do the right thing and eat crow of course but I didn’t expect it as such. Developer kits for this have already shipped whereas the press’ golden boy project I’ll talk about next is delayed until March, maybe. There seems to be a lot of developer hype for this and I think it’s a really cool idea. I actually backed it but had to reduce my pledge due to money issues but if this makes it to market, I’ll happily grab one to try it out.
  • The Oculus Rift will come out late and underwhelm. The same press outlets who have been dumping on OUYA have used such fashionable terms as “the future” to describe this thing. I think it’s very cool and if it does what it does well and gets game support, I’ll totally get one. However, all attempts at virtual reality have proven cumbersome and not generally worth the experience and I’ve seen nothing to indicate this will be otherwise. I do think this could find niche success but I think the press’ own hype of this will be to its detriment when normal consumers start getting their hands on it. I’ll be happy to be wrong about this.
  • Layoffs, studios closures and the viability of AAA development will be a bigger story than ever. This was one of the dominating themes of 2012 and as we go through yet another year waiting for new consoles, I think it’s only going to get worse. Sales are falling (no one’s 100% sure of why but many think it’s not just the normal end-of-cycle downturn), costs are set to skyrocket and anything that isn’t a sure fire hit is a recipe for financial catastrophe. Any studio that hasn’t consistently pumped out critical and commercial successes can’t get work anymore and we now have fewer publishers able to fund new AAA projects than ever before. I love AAA gaming and it pains me greatly to see it in such decline but unless people get bored of mobile games and come running back to it, I don’t see how they fix this going forward. My hope is that this is an adjustment and the industry will realign itself and come out stronger but that requires new players to enter the space and no one is.
  • Valve’s Steam box will not release this year but will enter the promised beta phase. My feeling is it will be a standardised PC design that runs customised Linux with Steam on it. And for that reason, I will probably not care because it will have a fraction of my library available to me and most of it is going to be indie stuff I don’t need to play on my TV or that I can play by running an HDMI cable from my laptop. Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a cool idea and from the way they’ve talked about it being able to run competing software, it might even be Valve’s own attempt at an OUYA-like thing which could be something special indeed.
  • Steam on Linux will remain niche at best. Despite the hypocrisy of Valve and others towards Windows 8, I do get where some of their concerns are rooted and I share them. However, to think Linux is going to ever gain mainstream adoption of any kind, especially gaming at this stage is a pipe dream. Even the versions of it that are designed to be “desktop friendly” are a nightmare to maintain, drivers are a mess and the community as a whole is still full of elitists who drive the mainstream away and like it that way. All that’s fine, I’ve got nothing against any of that if that’s the way you want a platform to be but all of those things mean it will never take over Windows. Kudos to Valve for making a concerted effort to make the platform viable for gaming and I do hope they can succeed in some way. But if they do, it won’t be for a long time to come.
  • Cross-media gaming will be attempted multiple times and never take off. Frank Gibeau from EA as well as babbling heads like Kevin Dent say that big gaming franchises have to have components everywhere. Beyond your console or PC game, there has to be a tie-in product on your phone, your tablet, your browser and anywhere else in order to keep you engaged at all times. I think this is a dumb idea and a waste of developer talent and resources. EA tried it with Mass Effect 3 and all the tie-in content sucked and no one really cared as far as I can tell. I won’t talk about this too much here because I have a future blog post about it planned.
  • There will be no new games announced or released from Valve this year (Dota 2 excepted). Forget Half-Life 2: Episode 3, we will get zilch from them in 2013. Between their new hardware experiment, Steam for Linux and whatever else, they aren’t going to be in a rush to put anything out. I excepted Dota 2 from this because it’s technically out to anyone who wants it already but it may exit beta.
  • DayZ standalone will launch late and be a buggy, hacker ridden mess like all Bohemia Interactive launches. Don’t get me wrong, I think the ideas of DayZ are absolutely fantastic, even if I burned out on the game after a month and I respect Bohemia as a developer a ton for finding a super tight niche and thriving in it. But the fact remains that their launch track record is abysmal and I don’t expect that to change with the standalone DayZ game. I hope they buck the trend this time because they might have the birth of a new genre on their hands and they’d be foolish to burn it right at the start.

Next-Gen Consoles

This gets its own section because there’s just too much to talk about regarding the next Xbox and PlayStation. There’s no doubt in my mind that these machines will be radically different from anything that’s come before. They have to be because making themselves stand out against phones and tablets (for better or worse) is a must.

  • Both the next Microsoft and Sony systems will be announced and shipped this year. Rumour is the next Xbox was supposed to come out in 2012 and got delayed for major retooling. The industry can’t wait any more, new hardware has to happen this year or there will be no one left to make stuff for it.
  • Both platforms will use far fewer specialised parts and be more like PCs than ever. It’s cheaper, most of the off-the-shelf parts are more powerful and most importantly, it’s much easier and faster to develop for. The days of Cell processors and weird memory allocation issues are over, they have to be. I’m guessing each system will have a minimum of 4GB RAM and hard drives will be standard but not SSDs.
  • Both platforms will offer every title in every tier for sale digitally on day one. Sony’s already trying this with select PS3 games. We’ve reached a tipping point where despite the telecartel’s best efforts, broadband is becoming a viable way to get large content and video game retail is losing its stranglehold on publishers and platform holders. By selling games digitally, the useless middleman who rips off the industry and consumers with used games gets cut out, pricing flexibility and sales are easy obtained and everyone makes more money. Retail is the only reason this wasn’t done before and Microsoft and Sony realise it’s time to throw caution to the wind and just do it. Whether I embrace this depends on whether they do DRM intelligently. They can look to Nintendo for how not to do it.
  • Free-to-play will become a big deal on consoles. Again, Sony tried this first with DUST 514 and Microsoft tried it with an XBLA title that wasn’t very good. However, they both know how much money there is to be made here, Sony especially since free-to-play is where Sony Online Entertainment makes most of its money now. The ability to handle microtransactions will exist at the system level and seamlessly integrate into both platform’s store front systems. For this to work though, another major change must happen and that is…
  • Console certification processes will continue to exist but will significantly lighten and be sped up. Free-to-play titles live and die on how quickly they can iterate. PlanetSide 2 has probably had a dozen or more patches since it left beta and it’s a better game for it. If each of those patches required weeks of sitting in certification limbo, it would have been disastrous. One of the big complaints from developers big and small over the last year has been how expensive and unnecessarily burdensome the console certification process is. Given that numerous games still ship completely broken or in some cases unfinished, it’s clearly not working as it is. Games shouldn’t have to wait weeks to make sure they prompt you to select your storage device and specifically tell you “Don’t turn off your console” when they’re saving data. I don’t know enough about the current processes to know how they will be streamlined but this must and will happen.
  • SmartGlass will be a big deal for Xbox and Vita integration will be big for PlayStation. Being able to have your console content interact with your phone or tablet is largely a dumb gimmick right now but Nintendo is showing how you can do it in unique and interesting ways. Microsoft will expand their SmartGlass platform to make this a much bigger (yet still optional) component of the gaming and media experience on Xbox. I believe Sony has plans to do something similar but on a more unique scale with the Vita due to the things it offers that phones and tablets can’t. I don’t know if tightly integrating the Vita into the home PlayStation experience can save the platform but I really hope it breathes new life into it.
  • Motion gaming is over. The Kinect was a fad and it’s largely dried up and almost no one’s making games for it any more, certainly nothing with a decent budget. Move died even quicker. The public’s got over motion gaming and I don’t think putting it in the box with the next systems is going to make it popular again. No matter how precise you make it, it’s still not the best way to play games. The next Xbox might support the current Kinect but I don’t think we’ll see another one.
  • Like PC, AAA games will be only a single segment of the gaming experiences available on consoles. This industry simply can’t afford to focus on AAA content exclusively, especially since costs and risks are only going to get more insane. But variety is good and despite some incredible gems coming out of console downloadable services (including half of my top 10 games of 2012), there’s really only the AAA stuff and the high-end downloadable stuff. I believe that free-to-play and a newly refocused effort on promoting and fostering smaller indie development, consoles are suddenly going to have the wide variety of game types, production values and price points that you could previously only get on PC and on mobile to a lesser extent. I think this is going to be the single biggest paradigm shift in the history of the console industry and it’s sorely overdue. This is what’s going to keep it relevant against up and coming platforms.
  • Sony will offer backwards compatibility via their Gaikai acquisition at some point but likely not at launch. They bought that company to probably eventually make PlayStation a platform that isn’t dependant on hardware but for now, I could see them using it this way since the rumoured radical hardware changes in the next console will likely make built-in backwards compatibility impossible. I don’t know if you’ll buy individual games or a subscription service or maybe some kind of hybrid tied into PlayStation Plus. Personally, I’d happy pay a few bucks a month to get access to a huge PS2 and PSP library. I do sincerely hope people who made PSN purchases on PS3 will get automatic Gaikai versions. I’m not counting on it though.
  • Microsoft will not offer retail game backwards compatibility but will offer it for certain XBLA titles like the 360 does with original Xbox games. I don’t think they want to risk pissing off people who will lose access to everything XBLA but they also aren’t going to go through the headache of making every game work. Most XBLA titles never pushed the 360′s processing power very hard so in theory, software backwards compatibility could be enough for most of those titles. I imagine they will also keep the 360 on sale and the Live system for that system up and running for a while.
  • PC gaming will keep getting bigger and challenge the notion of whether many hardcore gamers even need a console. Due to the PC-like architecture rumoured to be powering the new systems, making quality PC ports will be easier than ever and with that goes the reason many PC gamers had for also owning a console. If I could be assured that the majority of AAA PC ports were well done and more like they’ve been in the last year, I’d seriously consider only buying the next consoles when they were cheaper for exclusives.

Technology

  • The Apple fashion trend will finally begin to normalise but the press will ignore it. I’ll say it again before fanboys lose their minds: This does not mean I think Apple’s going away. They aren’t and despite being a mean-spirited, greedy company riding a choreographed public and press perception, it’s a very good thing that they’re around. However, between market saturation, maturing competition and people realising that a lot of their products are underpowered, overpriced and riding hype and form rather than function, their growth is going to start to go from bubble to something more realistic. This is what happens with bubbles. Their stock price has already slid 25% in 2012 but you know how many stories about it I’ve seen from the numerous tech sites I follow? Zero, even though many of these sites live blog their earnings calls. There’s a trend in modern media to build people or companies up high and then kick them back down but that’s never how it’s worked with Apple. They always get a huge free pass that others don’t and I think that’s going to continue. The market’s waking up though and whether fanboys like it or not, a lot of people still don’t use Apple products and many more realise their stuff isn’t necessarily the best at everything.
  • The Apple television is not coming. I made this prediction last year but the rumour won’t die so I’m reserving the right to make it again. Nearly everyone who is big in the TV business is bleeding to death right now. The HDTV market is saturated with people who see no compelling reason to upgrade. Paying 30-50% more for a screen with an Apple logo and the guts of a $99 Apple TV box (especially when many already have iPads you can plug into any TV) is simply not going to happen. Steve Jobs had one line in his biography where he said he’d figured out how to innovate in the TV space. Only for Apple does that one throwaway bit of information lead to an endless stream of speculation on how they’ll somehow revolutionise the TV space. It’s not going to happen.
  • The iPhone 5S will be the next model but in the Fall, not the Spring. Many think that after Apple burned their hardcore by announcing a newer iPad only six months after the previous one that the same thing would start happening with the iPhone too. Aside from the fact that iPhone sales are down because the 5 doesn’t offer anything worth upgrading for, the 6 month iPad debacle was I think just an experiment to see how far they can push people. I don’t think they’re going to keep doing that.
  • BlackBerry 10 will sustain RIM, not catapult them forward. By all accounts, it’s a fantastic operating system and their stock has been reflecting the buzz. The problem is that all 3 of the other major mobile platforms all tie into something bigger. iOS ties into Apple, Android ties into Google’s many services and Windows Phone ties into PCs. All RIM has is mobile and that’s going to make things tougher for them. I imagine that it’s extreme manageability, security features and flexibility will still make it the ideal corporate platform and most of their current corporate and government base will continue using them, as will a niche group of others. But their previous leadership was too short sighted to see the consumer battle approaching and they’ve lost it. I think they’ll refocus on what they have and serving that well.
  • PC sales will slide a bit as the industry normalises but the slide will not be huge and it will settle. While I think tablets are a horrible way to do anything but the lightest computing tasks, there’s a big segment of the population that only has to do the lightest tasks. Those people are buying tablets instead of PCs and with good reason. In addition, a weakening global economy means enterprise spending is slowing across the board and that’s where a lot of PC sales come from. The PC will be the dominant computing platform for the foreseeable future, anyone who says otherwise is clueless. But the industry has been red hot for too long and some cooling should happen. I hope this will thing out some of the garbage vendors and maybe stop the race to the bottom for a while.
  • Windows 8 will sell well below expectations. I think the hyperbolic hate for Windows 8 is way overblown but I get and share some of the big concerns about it. I’ve used it but not full-time and at some point soon, I will be upgrading my gaming rig to it so I can properly judge for myself. Depending on who you ask, it’s either selling OK or worse than Vista which was a dud as Windows sales go and for good reason, it was garbage. Some sales softness can be attributed to slowing PC sales but there has rightly or wrongly been some poison injected into the mainstream consciousness about Windows 8. Microsoft’s been desperate to chase the anti-choice, closed ecosystem model that Apple made popular and I think that’s stupid. They should be running the other way, embracing the opposite side and evangelising that. I believe that the poor sales of Windows 8 and the Surface tablets will cause them to re-evaluate what they’re doing with Windows and maybe back off or make optional some of what people hate about it.
  • Windows Phone 8 will rise to a respectable market share. I was wrong about this last year with Windows Phone 7 but my girlfriend is in love with WP8, as is everyone who buys a phone with it. There’s been lost of buzz slowly building about it and when the platform launched in China, it sold out everywhere in 2 hours, far outpacing the iPhone 5, even though it also set a record. Android is decimating all right now and that’s not going to change, nor are a sizable number of Apple faithful going to jump ship. But there’s still a big market out there of people who don’t own smartphones or who want to switch away from BlackBerry or older Android devices and I think there’s a big chance for Windows Phone there. After playing with my girlfriend’s Lumia 920, it makes my BlackBerry 9900 look last century and if I could afford a new phone tomorrow, it’s without question the one I would get.
  • The TV industry will make a new push from 3D TVs to 2K or 4K TVs. I said we would see no mention of 2K/4K TVs last year and I was right, as I was about 3D dying off. However, the Japanese TV manufacturers are bleeding out fast and they need something, anything to resuscitate their fortunes. I don’t think the market is ready for 2K/4K yet but damned if they aren’t going to try to make it ready.
  • Sharp will go bankrupt and Panasonic will have a massive restructuring. Whether Sharp goes the Japanese equivalent of Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 I don’t know but there’s no way for them to recover from the death spiral they’re in. Panasonic is already talking about shedding Sanyo and I think that’s only the tip of the iceberg for them. Sony is well underway with it’s restructuring now but Panasonic’s going to announce some kind of similar radical plan that will involve much deeper cuts due to them not being as diversified as Sony.
  • We will start to see more mainstream PCs come standard with SSDs or a combination of SSD and hard drive. SSDs have gotten so incredibly cheap that it’s becoming worth it for PC manufacturers to put them in medium-class models just to boast about how fast they are. There are even low-end SSDs that are so inexpensive, they could even make it into some of the cheap big box systems.

And after another epic length post, there’s all my predictions for 2013! There’s a lot of uncertainty in not only the tech and gaming industries but in the world in general. Still, I think there’s a lot to look forward to and I’m very curious to see what lies ahead. I hope your 2012 was good to you and yours and that your 2013 will be even better. I’m very stoked for a lot of things coming in my life this year and may only my good predictions be the right ones. Happy New Year once again!

Steam Does What Nintendon’t

Yep, I totally titled this blog post with a reference to an old, hilariously bad Genesis marketing slogan. I figured that since this post is going to be filled with nothing else but vitriol and rage, that I should at least try to inject some bad humour somewhere. To be honest, I know I’m preaching to the choir here as if you’re someone who is in a position to be affected by this issue, you likely already know what it is and are nodding your head. Nonetheless, this is something I need to rant about because it was actually so bad that it soured my initial impressions of a system I was really excited for.

To my great shock, I got a Wii U Deluxe Set for Christmas because my girlfriend and her parents are amazing. I had planned to get one but couldn’t afford it at launch and had no expectation of getting it for Christmas. I couldn’t wait to get home and try it out. I already knew about the hour long firmware update and while that was dumb and annoying, I’d planned for it so whatever. Then I decided to do the transfer of my sizable amount of purchased content from my Wii, about 90% of which is Virtual Console games. I’d heard that the transfer process was unnecessarily complicated but also doable so I decided to get it over with. What I discovered was that the process is much worse than most people said and that how bad of an experience it can be is directly proportional to how much content you’ve purchased. Let me put that another way: The more money you voluntarily gave Nintendo, the harder the process is. This is absolute bullshit and there is absolutely no reason for it, as I will demonstrate later.

Firstly, you have to download the Wii Transfer Tool onto both systems. It doesn’t come pre-installed on the Wii U, there’s just a link in the menu that takes you to the download page. This would be fine were it not for the fact that the Nintendo store servers were absolutely swamped and constantly errored out on both Christmas Day and Boxing Day. Guys, this is probably the single biggest activation day the Wii U will ever have, how did you not scale for it?! I gave up doing this on Christmas Day but succeeded at getting the tool on both systems on Boxing Day.

The first thing you’re told is that you need an SD card for the transfer process. Alright, that’s cool. Like most people, I store most of my downloaded Wii content on an SD card because the Wii has virtually no internal space for large stuff. What I’d assumed was that the transfer process would recognise this, merge that data with whatever you have stored on the Wii internal memory and package it all up so you can plug it into the Wii U and you’re away. Nope. It turns out that in fact, the transfer tool will only backup stuff that lives in Wii system memory. That means that everything you have on the SD card must be moved to the system memory one item at a time (there is no way to move them in batches) and if like me, you have way too much stuff to fit in system memory, you have to check all the sizes of the items and exclude enough to make everything fit. Stuff you’ve bought and had to delete can be re-downloaded from the Wii Shop later but I’ll get to that.

This didn’t initially anger me so much as make me tilt my head, not unlike my puppy does when he sees something he’s curious about. I re-read the poorly written transfer tool instructions multiple times, certain I’d missed something. Nope, this is totally how it works. This really pissed me off but I centered myself by remembering that this process only has to be done once. I started the transfer process on my Wii and my anger was quelled somewhat by the absolutely adorable Pikmin progress animation that accompanies it. The transfer off the Wii went fast…way too fast. Confused but hopeful, I removed the SD card and put it in the Wii U to start the second half of the process.

Once things got going, I was greeted by a totally different adorable Pikmin animation (also in the link above) but noticed that the progress was moving significantly slower this time. Then I looked at the top of the screen where it shows a status message on the current item being transferred and saw that all my purchased games were showing as “Downloading” whereas save data was showing as “Transferring.” Even though I’d had to painstakingly move every individual item on my SD card back to the Wii system memory, it wasn’t copying them, it was downloading them all again anyway! That rendered that entire long, frustrating process of moving all my content from the SD card to system memory completely unnecessary! If it has to download all the games again why can’t it just analyse all the content I have on the system, transfer the licenses on Nintendo’s server and just re-download them all again anyway?  There is absolutely no reason this had to work this way! NONE!

At this point, I literally said out loud “Fuck this bullshit!”, put the Wii Remote down and went to do something else and calm down while the process completed. When I came back about half an hour later, I saw an error message displayed with Nintendo’s usual cryptic numeric code that doesn’t actually tell you squat. I Googled that code and was informed it was a network timeout error. This was likely because the store servers were still swamped and since it was downloading everything again even though I had it all on the SD card, it was having issues. I hit Try Again and things continued. Half an hour later, I was greeted with another “An Error Has Occurred” message, this one with no buttons or numeric code and also a frozen Wii U. I’d read somewhere that this happened to a person and he lost the licenses to most of his content in the process. I hard rebooted the Wii U and thankfully, it realised the failure and offered to continue. I had two more “Try Again” error prompts throughout the remaining process but it never froze again. However, the entire process of re-downloading everything (which totaled less than 512MB, the size of the Wii system memory) took well over two hours. According to my router, the transfer speed rarely ever exceeded 250Kbytes/sec or to put it in simpler terms, 1/28th of the maximum speed of my Internet connection.

After all this was done, I had all the content that I’d managed to fit into the Wii’s system memory but now had 18 items to re-download. Should be easy right? Actually it is but it’s also unnecessarily arduous and frustrating, just like everything else. When you go into the Wii Store, there’s a Titles You’ve Downloaded button. The problem is, it’s an alphabetised list of everything that only displays 10 or so titles per page and it doesn’t know or tell you what you’ve already downloaded. You have to select an item, confirm you want to re-download it, tell it where to save it, confirm you want to basically “purchase” it again for no money, wait for it to download (which is slow at the best of times and barely worked at all prior to the 27th) and agree to a health and safety warning. After all that, you’re kicked back to the first screen of the Wii Shop. You can’t download content in a batch, you can’t queue up multiple items and it doesn’t even remember your place in the list of downloaded items. On top of all this, it takes about 5 seconds to switch between each page of the list and there were items on all 7 pages for me. Downloading these 18 remaining items (on the 27th when they had some semblance of available bandwidth) took over an hour.

The primary reason this took so long for me was because of the amount of content I had. I voluntarily gave Nintendo more money to buy more digital content on the Wii and as a direct result, this process took me hours when it probably took most others minutes. I would bet I’m in a very small percentile of people who bought that much digital content on that platform and that irrefutably made the process that much harder for me. People (myself included) lament how DRM only punishes legitimate consumers while doing nothing to stop piracy but this is worse than that. It proportionally causes more harm to the legitimate consumers the more content they bought. It’s completely backwards and it’s insane. Considering the Wii platform has been cracked wide open and has more rampant piracy than either of the other two consoles, this DRM has also proven a complete failure to boot. The worst part is that the longest, most frustrating steps of the process weren’t necessary at all because most of the data that was transferred was just licenses, not the games themselves! Why was this done this way? I can’t figure out a reason.

As you can tell from the title, I’m going to drop an example of exactly how you do DRM and why Nintendo has no excuse: Steam. You know how you get your Steam games on another computer? You install Steam on that computer, double-click the game you want and download it again. And if you don’t want to download it again, you copy the folder with the game from your old PC to the new one and it’s there instantly. Steam has thousands of developers working with them and all the major publishers. They are all fine with Steam’s sensible, completely reasonable way to do DRM. Both Sony and Microsoft’s consoles also do DRM far better than Nintendo. Microsoft’s could be better but it’s not this bad. There is no way that Nintendo of all companies couldn’t implement a similar style system and there is no way they were pressured from their partners to do it the way it is now.

I don’t know what entered their minds to make them think this was necessary but it’s wrong, it can be changed and it must be changed. I was super excited when I got my Wii U and I still can’t wait to crack into some games on it but this experience was so terrible and so frustrating that after it was done, I didn’t want to touch the system for the rest of the day. Combine this nightmare with the fact that Nintendo Network IDs (and eShop purchases made with them) are hard locked to the individual hardware they were created on and it makes me never want to buy a digital product from Nintendo again. It’s certainly enough to make me tell any prospective Wii U owner to stick to discs only. This type of DRM takes everything that’s bad about the concept in general and turns it up to 11.

Nintendo has a lot to prove with the Wii U and in general as a company. Dedicated consoles have a hard road ahead, Wii U perception has been mired by bad messaging and despite strong initial sales, lots of people are questioning what kind of long-term future it has. Combine this with Nintendo milking too many of their franchises too hard (even by Nintendo standards) and the company isn’t the sure bet it has been for decades. How does any company treat their most loyal and enthusiastic customers so badly in the face of competition like they’ve never seen before? I love Nintendo’s stuff and I so want them to continue to succeed but they’re either ignorant or arrogantly apathetic to the future that’s staring them in the face. They should be doing everything in their power to court their core fan base and keep them evangelizing the Wii U and 3DS. Based on my experiences with the Wii U so far, the message they sent to me was that they are either so arrogant or so apathetic towards my concerns that it doesn’t matter that I’ve bought more digital content than probably 90% of all Wii owners. Clearly the fact that I spent so much there means I’m willing to endure the headaches, either out of loyalty or because I’ll do whatever’s necessary to protect the content investments I’ve made. It’s unnecessary, it’s disrespectful and it’s offensive to me as a loyal Nintendo supporter.

I admit that my case is far in the minority and most Wii U buyers will either not be affected by it at all or will have it be much easier than it was for me. But that’s the whole point: This doesn’t affect many people because no one bought digital content on the Wii. We’re entering a new digital age and people who don’t embrace it with both hands will be left behind. Things like this show me that Nintendo either doesn’t get it or is too arrogant to realise that people won’t put up with this anymore, not when systems like Steam and the various app stores (for all their many flaws) do it far better and easier.

Nintendo has more to prove right now than perhaps they ever have in their 100+ years as a company. They need to listen to their customers, particularly their hard core audience and be nimble in their responses to them. They’re doing neither right now and they no longer hold a position where they can afford to do that. Please Nintendo, please fix this and do it quickly. I want you to succeed but things like this will be the beginning of the end for you.

On Gaming’s Future: Digital Distribution’s Many Challenges

Sorry for the dead air the last while but getting sick combined with a crazy sudden boom in freelance work ate up most of my time. I seriously only got to start Skyrim yesterday, that should inform you on the severity of my time constraints. But things have calmed down somewhat so, back to blogging!

The first topic I’m going to discuss on the future of video games is digital distribution and the challenges it faces. Of the many revolutionary changes that have happened in recent years, the ability to procure games (and most other media as well) in an all digital manner is probably the biggest one. The rapid advancement of this technology is changing the entire business model of the industry and mostly for the better. It’s good for consumers because it allows us to get games much quicker and without the need to track down a physical product. It’s good for publishers because it eliminates the need for expensive physical discs and packaging and cuts out the greedy brick and mortar retailers. And it’s perhaps best for small indie developers. Digital distribution has revitalised this amazing niche of game development and finally given it a large audience and that’s amazing. Some of the great smaller titles like Braid, Limbo and Super Meat Boy likely never would have happened were this means of distribution not available. The problem is that while many say it’s the way all gaming is going, there are a number of challenges that stand in its way and a few things which can make it a headache for consumers when it’s not handled properly.

Many press people, analysts and even many indie developers say that the video game industry will eventually go all digital. That means that you will never buy games on physical discs, rather every title will only be available digitally. This will eliminate middle men like GameStop and Best Buy who take a cut of new game sales and also heavily push used games, ultimately resulting in more profit for the game makers and fewer game boxes cluttering up your space. As examples of this in action, they point to platforms like PC where digital distribution is already a major force and platforms like iOS and Android where it’s the only way to buy content. Services like OnLive and Gaikai which run the games on servers and just stream you a video feed in real time have also come along and are slowly gaining momentum. Many predict that the next generation of home game consoles will be the last ones to use physical media and that the generation that follows will be digital only. There’s a lot of evidence that indicates this to be a possibility and on the surface, it seems like a win for everyone but let’s look at some of the world’s current realities.

Firstly, even in this connected generation, only around half the people who own game consoles connect them to the Internet. That’s millions upon millions of people who don’t play games online, don’t buy them online and were it not for game discs, would have no way to play anything on them. Given that the PS3 and Wii have wireless built-in and it can be added relatively cheaply to the Xbox 360, it isn’t hard to put them online but fully half don’t bother. There is an argument to be made that connecting entertainment devices to the Internet is becoming more commonplace and that with the mainstream success of smartphones and services like Netflix, more people are making the leap all the time and eventually, this won’t be an issue. While those are good points, I think we overestimate the level of complexity mainstream consumers who just want to play a game occasionally are willing to endure. Even after all these years, it’s still a complicated endeavour to setup a wireless network in your home if you’re not technically inclined. Of the 50% of people who have a console today and don’t put it online, how many of those do we think would be willing to endure the headache of doing so in order to be able to play games at all? What about all the young kids who don’t have credit cards to buy them with? There are solutions to both of these problems but we have to remember that we “hardcore gamers” are not the majority audience here. Connecting your console to wi-fi is trivial for us and we know that if we don’t have a credit card, we can easily go out and buy a points card to get content. Getting a soccer Mom to do that may not be so easy and if this industry is going to continue to grow, we need people like that playing games.

Secondly, we have the continuing problems of broadband penetration and dealing with greedy large telcos which control most of the first world’s connectivity. Broadband is getting more prominent all the time but we’re still a long way away from it being ubiquitous. Large portions of the first world still don’t have high-speed access, either because it’s not available or voluntarily (several people I work with who just don’t have Internet access at home) and many press and analysts forget that a lot of the game industry’s business comes from outside North America and western Europe. These numbers are improving all the time but growth is starting to plateau and world governments are doing little to encourage rolling broadband out to non-urban centres. This effectively cuts those people out of a digitally distributed future. On top of that, we have the growing problem of big telcos imposing incredibly low usage caps on consumer connections at a time when bandwidth requirements are only going up because of digital distribution. These companies are desperate to protect their overpriced media offerings and the obsolete business models attached to them and are trying to lock out digital competitors by imposing limits so low with overage fees so high that consumers largely can’t take advantage of digital options. People are mounting good fights to this and are meeting with some success but there’s still a long way to go. When the prospects for getting a game are paying $60 for a copy on disc or $60 plus potentially $10-$20 more if you run over your cap for the month, people cool off to digital purchases quickly. Compared to other media industries such as movies and music, the video game industry has largely been embracing digital distribution rather than trying to fight it off. They do have significant lobbying ability and if anyone could help mount a defence against greedy telcos, they could. If they want an all digital future though, they have to get on this now or risk having the future they desire stopped before it really even starts.

Next, we have digital game pricing. In my last paragraph, I mentioned how buying a copy of a game digitally usually costs the same amount as buying it on a disc. This is something that absolutely has to change if non-enthusiast consumers are going to embrace this new distribution method. These days publishers are quick to point out that whatever format your game comes on, you’re not really buying the game, you’re buying a “license to use the content”. That’s a problem in and of itself but at least when you have a disc, you always have the game and the publisher can’t come to your house and take it from you. In the case of digital games, we’ve already seen cases of publishers abusing their license agreement and arbitrarily taking away purchases for no good reason. Asking people to assume risks like that with no reduction in price is a tough proposition. For all the current unsustainable trends in mobile gaming (more on that in a future post), one thing they and for that matter, sales promotions on digital platforms like Steam have proven is that lower prices means more sales, often with volume making up for the discount and then some. This speaks to a larger issue regarding game prices in general (more in that in the future as well) but by and large, the digital distribution platforms that have taken off have done so because of lower prices. iTunes made digital albums $10 instead of $20-$25 for CDs, Netflix made movies $9.99 for all you can watch instead of $7 per rental or $30 to buy a DVD, Amazon made buying a book digitally 30-50% cheaper than the physical version. While the games industry has happily adopted digital distribution as a way to cut out the middle men, they’re one of the only industries that hasn’t accompanied that adoption with lower prices, I think predominantly because of skyrocketing development costs (you guessed it, more on that in the future too). Consumers have shown that having potentially limited control over their purchased content is acceptable when they see a reduction in price to mitigate that loss of control but they aren’t willing to accept both limitations and higher prices. Digital distribution also effectively eliminates the used games business which makes many publishers salivate but which can have a significant impact on consumers who rely on trade-in credit to keep getting the latest stuff. If you take that ability away but keep prices high, fewer new sales will be a consequence and that ultimately just replaces one problem with another.

Lastly, there’s the limited control issue which I also alluded to above. Publishers have already met with a hailstorm of criticism in recent years because of draconian Digital Rights Management implementations that treat your paying customers like criminals (and rightfully so). The all digital era has the potential to take that to a whole new level and if it’s not handled properly, it can drive many people away from gaming. There are many people like myself who are rightly concerned about what’s going to happen to all our digital Xbox Live and PlayStation Network purchases when the next round of consoles come around. You can bet that if Microsoft and Sony don’t have answers to those questions when those new systems are announced, they are going to have a lot of angry customers on their hands. With digital distribution comes the inherent problem of control, how much freedom you have to access your content in the future, what happens if the platform holder shuts down etc. For some people this isn’t a concern as they may not care about playing most stuff years down the line but this is an important issue for many “hardcore gamers” such as myself. For me personally, it’s not even about whether I’ll be able to play every game going forward, it’s more that I paid to “own” something and having it available should I want it in the future should be part of that. All of these concerns are things that platform holders can address pre-emptively, most have simply not done so due to a lack of consumer demand. That demand has not existed in mass quantities up to now but I can see this changing soon and it will inevitably become a large part of the discussion when the idea of all digital consoles get thrown out.

Despite everything I’ve said above, I actually welcome an all digital future for games and most other media. From a straight up convenience point of view, there’s simply no question as to what’s better. All of the problems I discussed can be dealt with in a way that benefits consumers while ensuring that the creators of games get the money they deserve. The gaming public simply needs to speak up on what they want and the publishers need to show that they’re willing to work with us. I think this future is coming in some form regardless but I also think that it’s maybe not quite as close as many predict.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 369 other followers