Geek Bravado

The blown hard arrogance of Parallax Abstraction.

Tag Archives: mobile phones

Revisiting My Bold Predictions for 2012

The end of 2012 is upon us. Personally, it’s been a Hell of a year, not just in the industries I observe with interest but for me in general. My girlfriend passed the UFE and will be a Chartered Accountant in a few months, we moved from our small apartment into a house (still renting though), we got a puppy and my company reverse merged with another company, went public as a result and changed it’s 30+ year name in the process. And that’s just a bit of it. It was very good overall though and I think 2013′s going to be even better! Before I make my bold predictions for the new year, I must of course revisit those I made for the year that’s just ending. Go here to find them as I will only mention their titles here and more in-depth explanations are included in the original post. I’m going to ape a neat system the crew at Gamers With Jobs came up with and rate how accurate I was in terms of a score. I made 30 predictions (29 “real” ones and 1 joke) so that’s the total the score can be. If I was mostly or totally right on a prediction, I get 1 point. If I was half-right or had some critical information wrong but the gist was accurate, I get half a point. And finally, if I was dead wrong, I get zilch. I’m also only scoring the bolded parts which are the actual predictions, not the additional details which are just general thoughts. This is scored by me of course but hey, this ain’t scientific or nothin’. I will try to judge myself honestly. :)

Off we go!

Gaming

  • THQ will manage to secure additional investment or credit but this will be their last gasp at survival before they run out of cash (half point.) As far as I know, they didn’t get additional money, they were just able to tap a line of credit they hadn’t used. They still ran out of cash and declared bankruptcy just recently, being swept up by a private equity firm. Danny Bilson left but Brian Farrell’s still around and his long-term future there is still unknown.
  • GSC Game World’s upcoming news will be that the company is indeed dead (1 point.) The company still exists but has no staff so it’s basically dead. A new studio did in fact start up with the old staff but they’re making a free-to-play online game in a S.T.A.L.K.E.R.-like universe but not with the actual IP which they couldn’t secure. A bit of a battle has started up between the remnants of GSC and bitComposer Games over the IP.
  • The 3DS will continue to sell well at the current price point and the Vita will not do the numbers Sony wants but will do enough to keep the platform afloat (1 point.) I was right on about the 3DS and not fully on the Vita but I’m calling it a win because while it did underperform, Sony keeps saying they’re backing it going forward and there are games coming, though not many. I so hope the Vita can find it’s footing.
  • The successor to the Xbox 360 will be announced at E3 and the PS4 will be teased only (0 points.) No other way to say it, I was wrong, wrong, wrong. This is the year both will be announced but I won’t make a prediction on that specifically because it’s too obvious.
  • The WiiU will get a price and a ship date in the holiday quarter (1 point.) Bang on, though this wasn’t exactly a stretch. They also did solve the problem of multiple tablets but in a half-assed way that’s not close to ready yet. I think the launch lineup was OK and it’s been selling out but talk has been soft so it’s too early to tell how it’s doing.
  • The wonderful trend of analysts either talking less or the gaming press finally realising they’re not worth listening to will continue (0 points.) Why oh why couldn’t I have been right about this? It seemed like the enthusiast press was finally over leeching clicks off these hacks but they’re doing it as much as ever with even more analysts (and even purposefully obscure hacks like Dent and industry failures like Broussard) beaking off in the press all the time. This is a scourge that needs to stop.
  • This is the year where the realities of mobile development  start to become clear in the development community (1 point.) This didn’t happen to the degree I expected it to but I’m calling it a win because it has already started. Multiple promising mobile developers have died this year, largely because they foolishly believed the mobile gold rush meant nobody could fail. I’ll flesh this out more with my 2013 predictions.
  • Many Facebook developers will continue to struggle or in the case of the big boys like Zynga, show themselves to be grossly overvalued and not as big a money press as once thought (1 point.) Nailed it! Zynga’s in a death spiral, Facebook itself has a disastrous fraud-filled year and we haven’t heard a peep in months about a big new social startup. A lot of this is because most Facebook games don’t work on mobile platforms and that’s increasingly where Facebook usage is going. This field isn’t going away but much like mobile, it’s getting kicked in the face by reality instead of hype.
  • AAA publishers that are not Activision will keep losing money and AAA developers will continue to be hit-or-die (1 point.) Nailed again but again, I wish I was wrong. Most of the few AAA publishers left are either losing money or just squeaking out modest profits whereas Activision is still sucking the marrow from Blizzard and Call of Duty. Numerous developers went under this year and almost all of those can be tied to the failure of a single title. This is a dark time to be in AAA and it makes me sad.
  • Diablo III will come out some time this year and it will be a huge hit but not as big a one as Blizzard or Bobby Kotick thinks (half point.) It did come out and was a huge hit but as far as I know, it’s done extremely well. It’s up to something like 7 million sales now and despite being basically broken, the real money auction house is generating revenue. I do think that part is doing worse than Blizzard wanted but I don’t think they’re disappointed with the money the game’s made.
  • Star Wars: The Old Republic will experience a sharp drop in subscribers (1 point.) Bang on. They flailed about trying out a trial model, then went to a horrible exploitive free-to-play system and by many accounts, this detonated the upper echelons of BioWare. I actually think it’s a good game, it just came out at the wrong time with a foolish business model.
  • John Riccitiello’s leadership at EA will be strongly challenged (0 points.) There were rumblings in the press that he was in trouble but nothing public happened.
  • Free-to-play will start to really shine this year in non-Asian RPG ways (1 point.) Oh yes! One of my top 10 games of the year is free-to-play and I’ve got like 5 or 6 of them installed on my PC right now. Not all of them do it right (particularly on mobile platforms) but those that do are making great games and best as I can tell, tidy profits too.
  • Half-Life 2: Episode 3/Half-Life 3 will not release this year (1 point.) Is anyone really surprised? I know Valve’s way of doing business means this won’t happen until they feel like it but seriously guys, enough is enough. This series made you a success and your fans are owed closure.
  • Highly intrusive DRM schemes on PC games will be scaled back, though DRM in general will still be an issue (1 point.) Ubisoft dropped their always-on DRM (though activations are still needed) but Diablo III embraced the horrible practice with both hands, which caused highly publicised launch nightmares. It’s definitely a lessening trend though which I am very happy to see.
  • I may potentially buy an iPad 3 to try out iOS gaming (half point.) I split a used iPad 2 with my girlfriend which is why I call this a halfsie because I did specifically say iPad 3. Overall, I’ve been very disappointed. iOS uses dated design and most mobile games that I’ve tried have been terrible. I was wrong about the iPad 3 having Retina too, they totally figured that out. If I even need a tablet of my own any time soon, it will either be Windows 8 Pro or Android.
  • SECTION SCORE: 11.5/16

Technology

  • Apple will not release a branded television (1 point.) I can’t believe I’m seemingly one of the only people who didn’t think this was obvious. There is no market for a TV that will end up costing 30-50% more (which it will have to for it to have the margins Apple wants) but which just has the guts of an Apple TV box you can buy for $99. One line from Jobs’ biography where he says he “cracked it” means exactly squat.
  • This is the year Android tablets finally become competitive (0.5 points.) I’m calling this a halfsie because while Android tablet sales are up significantly (particularly with the introduction of the Nexus tablets), the iPad still dominates the tablet market and from what I can tell, most Android apps are still made for phones exclusively or primarily. It’s getting better but it’s still not the competitor it needs to be.
  • Research In Motion will finally remove Balsillie and Lazaridis from their leadership roles at the company (1 point.) BOOM! Most of my secondary predictions were right too. Their stock plummeted but is recovering well and by all accounts, BlackBerry 10 could be something special. I really hope so, I don’t want to see this company die.
  • More than 50% of laptop models released this year will not include an optical drive (0 points.) There’s no doubt that far fewer laptops have them but I’ve not been able to find a statistic that confirms whether I’m right or not. If I can, I’ll update this but I think if more than half were ditching the optical drive, it would have made the news somewhere.
  • Hard drive prices will return to pre-flood levels (1 point.) Checking a few places online where I can buy a hard drive, I’m saying this is right.
  • Microsoft will announce a scaling back or removal of the new Start Screen in Windows 8 or make it 100% optional (0 points.) I was so wrong about this, I should almost be deducting points for it. I think the hate for Windows 8 is overblown but I do have major concerns about what it means for the future of Windows and the Start Screen is still stupid on anything that isn’t a touch screen. It’s questionable how well Windows 8 is selling right now so I hope Microsoft is taking the negative feedback to heart.
  • Windows 8 will shine on tablets and will also start to compete with Android for a big share of the iPad’s market (0.5 points.) I’m calling this a halfsie because by all accounts, Windows 8 is killer on tablets but Surface has apparently been a sales flop and the app ecosystem is not taking off like many (including myself) thought it would. This could still change but so far, it hasn’t made a dent in the market share of the other platforms.
  • Windows Phone 7 will get a massive marketing push and gain a lot of market share (0 points.) Windows Phone 7 became Windows Phone 8 and while it looks like interest and sales are ramping up, it hasn’t gained a ton of market share yet, certainly not even to make anyone besides maybe RIM nervous. My girlfriend bought a Lumia 920 though and thinks the iPhone pales in comparison to it, as do many other people. Microsoft is traditionally horrible at marketing but if they can figure that out, I still think they could have a winner here.
  • Twitter will continue to grow in popularity but still won’t figure out how to make money (1 points.) Calling it a win because it’s definitely still growing but given how there have been no stories about the financial success this year, no IPO and how they’re clamping down hard on how much third party clients can bang on their servers, I’m guessing they still don’t have a long-term business model yet.
  • Facebook will remain insanely popular but each user will do less with it (0.5 points.) It’s obviously still popular and a ton of people I know personally are using it less and less but I’m not convinced that’s the overall trend. As they continue to test the limits and patience of their users with more invasive ads and terms of use changed though, this might change.
  • 3D will continue to decline and possibly die off in the home entirely (1 point.) Most TV manufacturers are using 3D as a bullet point now but they’ve all run away from making that a reason to convince people to buy new sets. The big Japanese TV manufacturers are all nursing sucking chest wounds right now so they better figure something out fast. I was also right about how the idea of mainstream 2K or 4K TVs didn’t happen. 3D is still a thing in theatres but that’s about it.
  • Best Buy will announce a major corporate restructuring this year, closing underperforming stores and refocusing on providing high quality service (0.5 points.) If I allowed myself three quarter points, that’s what I would get because I was right about everything except the announced refocusing on high quality service. The company’s bleeding, stores have been closed and one of the original guys is trying to take the company private. Refocusing on service is the only thing that can save them but they’re still arrogantly convinced that the horrendous experience they currently offer is quality service.
  • Canadian third party Internet prices will rise but not as much as people fear (1 point.) Nailed it! Prices went up but only a little bit and as I understand it, the third party Canadian ISP industry is still squeaking out razor-thin margins. This makes me very happy to see, especially since more and more people I know are dumping the telecartels for them. They’re still fighting a tough war but I’m glad the fight’s being made.
  • I will continue to search in vain for a tech podcast that doesn’t spend most of its time fellating Apple or that realises tech news exists that doesn’t involve phones or tablets (1 point.) This was a joke prediction but I’m still right. I’ve tried me damndest to find one since dumping This is Only A Test after both the content and the attitude of the guys from that site finally drove me over the edge. I’ve yet to find another one that doesn’t continue to trumpet how Apple is our lord and saviour or that phones and tablets aren’t the only neat things in the world. It’s a shame but such is life. I don’t currently listen to any tech podcasts and I don’t really miss having one anyway.
  • SECTION SCORE: 9/14

TOTAL SCORE: 20.5/30

Overall, I’m still way more accurate than the majority of analysts that get quoted in the enthusiast press. That’s ridiculous and sad. I’m a guy with no knowledge of business or the inside scoop on anything and my largely uninformed guesses were better than guys who make orders of magnitude more than I do to spout this stuff. Insane. I’ve had better years but also worse years but to be honest, most of the stuff I was right on is stuff I would have been happy to be dead wrong about. I don’t like to be a prophet of doom but it seems like that’s my skill sometimes.

Check back tomorrow where my new predictions for 2013 will be unleashed! There will definitely be plenty of them as well as this is shaping up to be an even crazier year in gaming and tech than 2012 was.

Could the iPhone 5 be the beginning of Apple’s plateau?

Breaking news here I’m confident you’ll not read anywhere else: Apple announced the iPhone 5 today. I know, hot scoop, though there was no sight of the iPad Mini or any of the other stuff that was widely expected to be there as well. I had to get a tire replaced today so I didn’t get a chance to watch any of the live blogging gushfests, electing instead to just read a couple of summaries after the fact. With Nokia stupidly bombing the intro of the otherwise impressive Lumia 920 with that camera scandal and Motorola’s new RAZR model dropping with a thud, Apple didn’t have to try very hard to impress. I had my suspicions of how the reveal of what the iPress claimed could be the biggest product launch in history would be received but I know my views are often coloured by my living in a reality where Apple can actually do wrong. Based on the stunning amount of “Meh” I’ve read since, it appears even many of the faithful have joined this reality.

I’ve said for a long time that Apple’s current growth is a fashion trend, that it’s unsustainable and that while they’re going nowhere any time soon, they are in a bubble that’s only going to pop faster with Steve Jobs now gone. This view has largely been met with rolled eyes but I believe I’m one step closer to being proven right today. The first sign of this was the iPhone 4S. It’s only big new feature aside from a spec bump (which is always expected) was Siri. It launched in beta (which Apple never does) and while other phones already had voice recognition features, none had the theoretical capabilities of Siri. After the initial lustre wore off though, people realised that Siri didn’t actually work very well and most stopped using it. Apple omitted it from the next iPad that followed and has kind of neglected to talk about it since. Apple loves to toot their own horn so when they don’t talk about something recently introduced, it means they aren’t pleased with how it’s done. I predicted that the iPhone 4S would be the beginning of a cooling off period for the Apple fashion trend and that it would sell well but would be the first phone to not trend as well as the previous one. I’ll admit it, I was dead wrong. The 4S is the best selling iPhone to date. There is no doubt whatsoever that the iPhone 5 will sell many millions and continue to make Apple buckets of money. However, I do believe this could be the tipping point and I’ll tell you why.

The overwhelming view expressed which I agree with fully is that the iPhone 5 offers literally nothing new. Siri was new in that like Apple often does, they took an idea someone else came up with and evolved it into something neater, at least on the surface. The iPhone 5 is in every single way, a spec bump. It has a faster processor, a slightly bigger screen, 4G LTE and it’s thinner. That’s it. That size screen (and larger) as well as LTE have been available on Android phones for years now. There are even Windows Phone 7 devices with them, forget the Windows Phone 8 ones around the corner. Those are not new features, they’re playing catch-up at best. Now, there’s nothing wrong with a spec bump but the generally accepted rule is that every second year, that’s when the big innovations come to the iPhone. The second one added 3G and third party apps, the fourth changed the design and added the Retina screen. With the iPhone 5, we arguably got less innovation than the 4S, just features that the competition’s already perfected. None of that is going to make anyone but the hardcore iCult break a contract to upgrade early and it’s certainly not going to convert anyone who wasn’t just waiting to buy an iPhone regardless of what it had. They didn’t even improve the camera, the one thing where the iPhone has solidly stepped on the competition’s throat for 2 years now. It looks like the Lumia 920′s camera will be the top dog this generation far and away, something that was enough to sway my girlfriend from being sold on the iPhone 5 to waiting for reviews of the 920 and likely going with that if the camera fares as well as it appears.

What this tells me is that Apple is running out of big innovations to make to the iPhone. They undoubtedly have an R&D superteam with a virtually unlimited budget crunching away on new ideas but there is a limit to what can be done right now and I think mobile phones are coming up on it, if they aren’t there already. If the best they can offer with the iPhone 5 is matching features others already have, that will start to take some of the sheen off the fashion trend that they’re carefully balanced on. If they can’t outspec the competition, they might have to start competing on price or offering things like more than 16GB of memory in the base model, eating into their precious high margins which remain an abberation in the tech industry. When those margins see even a small dip, expect their nearly $700 stock price to take a big hit as investors no longer see Apple as the new hotness.

Now, some of the smartest people in the world work at Apple and I believe they knew this long before I did. I also believe this is why they decided for no good reason to change the dock connector on the iPhone 5 to a new design ironically called Lightning. There was nothing wrong with the old connector. It was a bit large but it wasn’t obtrusive, it worked fine and it was on millions of accessories and cables. The new connector requires either the replacement of everything you used your iPhone with before or that you purchase a $30 adapter which Apple is rumoured to be selling exclusively. There is no benefit other than being smaller because this “Lightning” connector doesn’t even support the new USB 3.0 standard, meaning it’s probably not even much faster. This makes Apple’s partners happy because they get to sell the same thing to everyone over again and it allows Apple to hedge their bet a bit because if the iPhone 5′s sales don’t outpace the 4S, they can pad out those margins by making the new buyers pay for a $30 adapter that probably costs them $1.50 at most. If sales are lower, the new customers get the privilege of subsidising the drop and if the sales are higher, Apple just gets to make even more money. It’s the kind of scummy, disrespectful move that few other companies have the brilliance, gall and blindly ravenous fan base to pull off. I truly believe that this move has a shot at making Apple the same amount of money, even if the iPhone 5 ends up falling short of the sales bar set by the 4S. That will keep investors happy but it’s a move that will only work for a year. Lightning is something they’re going to be stuck with for a while.

I’ve insisted for a long time that Apple could only maintain the momentum they have for so long before they simply ran out of ways to milk it. Sure, they have the iCult that will blindly buy whatever Tim Cook tells them to and the success of iOS devices has grown that membership immensely in recent years. Much as I despise this company and the pretentious douchebags that ran before and run it now, they’re here to stay and I think it’s partially good because it forces everyone else to work extra hard to compete and make things better for everyone. As with all my predictions, I could be totally wrong on this but I think this is where their growth goes from stratospheric to merely atmospheric and where the other phone hardware and platform makers can really step up and show what they’ve got. Apple’s growth is wholly dependent on that ultra-high margin and if they can’t find a reason to get people to keep paying $200 + $80/month for an iPhone every year, the only way to keep the sales numbers up will be to join the “race to the bottom” that everyone else is in. When that happens, it’s no longer Apple and everyone else, it’s Apple with everyone else. That’s the way it should be and I won’t lie, if this is the first iPhone that sells less in the first month than the last one, I will take great pleasure in watching iCultists squirm as they try to spin it as a good thing. Apple’s done some great things but they need a shot of humility and I think this might be the start of it. In my house, they’ve now gone from a guaranteed sale to a 75/25 shot of losing to a Windows Phone made by Nokia. More people than just my girlfriend are thinking that now and that should be keeping Tim Cook awake tonight.

Apple’s (And Soon Microsoft’s) Big Threats to Choice

UPDATE: Since I posted this entry, Microsoft has decided to change the Metro-only restriction on their free development tools. A smart move on their part.

I make no secret of the fact that while there are many cool things Apple does, I am not a fan of many of the company’s practices nor the lazy, fanboy driven press that salivates and gives free PR to everything they do, usually free of criticism. The innovations made by Apple products in recent years are undeniable and they are finally pushing an otherwise stagnant tech industry forward with new ideas that involve more than just bumped specs. However, not all of these ideas are good ones and the success Apple is meeting with some are driving others like Microsoft towards similar models that while they are beneficial in some ways, also serve to greatly hurt consumers and the power we have to self-determine our experiences with technology. The biggest threat that Apple (and soon Microsoft) represent is the restriction and constriction of user choice.

I’ve said for a while now that Apple’s biggest failing as a company (from a consumer perspective, clearly not yet a financial one) is that their products are designed around limiting consumer options. You can only buy Mac and iOS hardware from one place, you have a very limited number of options for that hardware, it’s largely not upgradable (or in the case of iOS devices, not at all) and it’s purpose-designed to be a treadmill of forced obsolescence that requires users to upgrade their products on Apple’s desired schedule instead of theirs, creating huge amount of technological and monetary waste. With the App Store, they’ve taken this a step further by ensuring that all iOS devices only have one place where you can buy software for them. This is a place Apple controls in every way from approval of what software you can see to how add-ons for it can be purchased to how updates are delivered. They also get a 30% cut of every penny spent on this software, a fairly respectable number given how little they really offer developers beyond permission to list there.

Compare that to the PC landscape where you have dozens of vendors selling pre-built PCs with hundreds of options, you can custom build a system in just about any configuration you can fathom, you have multiple operating system choices and within those, hundreds of different ways to acquire both free and paid software. Many have criticised the PC as being the “wild west” and all the complexity and risks that come with that but I see that as its greatest trait. If you are a new user who needs to be guided by the hand, there are options for that. If you’re a power user like myself who likes to poke, prod and tweak every aspect of your computing experience, you can do that too. If your budget for a computer is $400 or $4,000, there’s options to suit what you want. This has never been the case with Apple and I find their furthering that to greater and greater extremes each year to be a dangerous precedent. For all of the failings of Windows (and there are many), it’s still my preferred OS because of the freedom it offers me while also giving me access to the widest array of software and tools available. When I use a Mac, I’m always feeling as if it’s trying to make me use it the way Apple feels is ideal as opposed to the way I feel is ideal which is how computing is supposed to be.

My biggest worry for the future of technology today is how Apple and now Microsoft with Windows 8 are aggressively pushing the vision of having stricter control over what you do with your computing devices. They are both heavily pushing native software stores that they control (and get a cut from), Apple is planning to make it much more frustrating to install non-App Store delivered content, Microsoft is pushing the new Metro app-driven Start Screen down people’s throats whether they want it or not, they tried to force PC manufacturers to lock out alternative operating systems (they backed off from that but only on the desktop side) and they’re restricting the free versions of development tools to Metro app development only. Much like iOS apps, Metro apps will only be deliverable through Microsoft’s proprietary store. To be fair, Microsoft isn’t trying to restrict or curtail traditional software development and delivery the way Apple seems to be but given the ability these two companies can have to get a piece of every piece of software sold for their respective systems, it stands to reason that they’ll continue to try to squeeze alternatives out more moving forward.

As someone who gets my free and paid software from a wide variety of different places (often depending on who is offering the best deal), this prospect terrifies me and it should terrify every other computer user as well. Both of these companies were already making a ton of money and will continue to without cornering the software delivery market. They are trying to change the value in what they offer us from being the platform on which a variety of things can run to create an experience ideal for each user to one where they are in charge of what we get to consume, how we get to consume it and all the while, taking their percentage from the software authors for the privilege of getting to play in their walled garden. This isn’t the way computers are supposed to be and there’s no need for it beyond enriching the platform holders at the expense of consumer interests.

They claim this is done under the guise of keeping things easy to use and secure but that’s frankly bollocks. Yes, there are a lot of stupid computer users out there and many security problems which largely result from that stupidity. Nonetheless, we’ve been managing fine up to this point and forcing us to get our software from your store where you can shove competition aside for any reason you choose and confine innovation only to that which doesn’t impeded your business interests is not going to improve that. Is iOS only easy to use and secure because the users don’t have access to third party app stores? To claim that position to me says that Apple doesn’t think very highly of their average user’s intelligence. And given that every iOS release gets jailbroken almost immediately, I would say the security claims have already been disproved repeatedly. But then, convincing people that Apple loves and respects its users while actively working against their interests has been among the company’s greatest achievements. I’ve embraced PCs and Windows, faults and all, because I never got the impression from Microsoft that they wanted things to act in a similar, at least not until now. They are a company that’s out to make money but they were already making lots and growing amounts of it and seemed fine with that. Now, having seen Apple’s insane (and unsustainable) profits made on the backs of monopolising the software delivery business as well, they’ve realised there’s a huge slice of the pie they could be getting and want it no matter what.

This greedy mindset represents one of the biggest threats to innovation and consumer freedom when it comes to technology in my opinion. The greatest thing technology has permitted is larger democratization, making it easier for people to create and express both in terms of what they make and do with their tools and how they are able to tailor those tools to their needs. When the two biggest players start locking the doors to their kingdoms and start to limit who gets keys to it based not on the needs and desires of their customers but of their own business interests, technology moves away from a democratic model to a totalitarian one. What if an app offends their corporate standards of taste that may not line up with yours or what if an app does something better than one of theirs which they are trying to sell for more? There are many examples of software that was denied by Apple for both of these reasons. Call my position hyperbolic if you want but when Apple and Microsoft are allowed to decide what gets to be installed on what is supposed to be your computer,  your tablet and your phone, who really owns that device you paid for?

I don’t know what the best solution is to this problem. I’m not normally a fan of governments telling businesses how to run themselves but ultimately, consumer interests are greater and these companies enjoy positions that don’t simply give people the ability to just “speak with their wallets”. When the platform holders are already making record profits, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to tell them that they need to keep improving their products to entice people to keep buying them, not start sapping away secondary revenue sources and forcing people to use them so they can keep making money after they’ve already made their money. If the only way you can keep making money for your business is by sticking your nose into other people’s, then your leadership is failing and you need fresh thinking. Keeping technology open and free for choices and the innovation that comes from them should be paramount and this is a vision that Apple and Microsoft no longer share. Consumers need and deserve a better solution that what we’re proposing, I just wonder if we’re too blinded by the new shiny to demand it.

UPDATED: Mike Daisey Stretched the Truth But There’s Still A Problem In China

If you’ve been reading the Internet this afternoon you’re probably aware of this already but This American Life has retracted the story Mike Daisey about Apple factory conditions after further fact-checking revealed that some of the more dramatic portions of his story either stretched the truth or were outright lies. I did a post about this story and though I don’t claim to be any kind of journalist, it appears I now used a bad source and for that, I admit it and want my readers to know if you don’t already.

It’s always a shame when one of the few sources of real journalism left in the world has a misstep like this and I will give This American Life credit, they seem to be owning the mistake. They are planning to devote an entire one hour episode to coming clean, pointing out the errors that were made and asking those involved to clarify. You’d never see Fox News or CNN do that. I do think the timing of this is highly suspicious as this is iPad 3 launch day. While it’s easy to say that this shows they were bowing to pressure from a mega corporation and are doing this to appease them, I actually don’t think that’s true. I do think that they are intentionally making this announcement today in the hope it will get drowned out among the sea of other lazy outlets devoting “news” time to covering the lines at Apple stores, something that involves about as much journalism as the Apple advertisements that will likely follow. Honestly, I think that’s kind of a shady thing to do but This American Life of all people know that many are incredibly connected (especially those who would buy an iPad) and word of this is going to make it out regardless. Since their site is currently down due to overloading as I write this, I think it’s safe to say the word is out.

Regardless of the reasons for this retraction, my great fear is that this will give the iCult and those of it who have infiltrated the press like David Pogue cause to go “SEE! There’s no problem in China, it’s all just made up by Apple haters!” Nothing could be further from the truth. It’s true that I have many legitimate reasons to dislike Apple as a company but that doesn’t mean there is no problem. Around the same time as Daisey’s story, other detailed reports were made about conditions in Apple factories, reports that haven’t been called into question. And as I’ve said before, this isn’t just an Apple problem but one that involves nearly every major electronics manufacturer. That one guy misrepresented some things doesn’t suddenly mean there’s no issue and that companies like Apple and many others shouldn’t be doing a lot more than they are to make things better.

As for Mike Daisey, I think his attempt to justify what he did by saying “it wasn’t journalism, it was just theatre” is complete crap. He did what he did to get his story on the air and draw attention to his one-man show about it. By fabricating stuff as he did, he only served to damage the cause he was championing, a cause I believe in and which many more should. Now we have one of the most vocal and rabid fanbases in the world using this as a reason to deny the problem and one of the last bastions of truly great journalism has been shamed and perhaps damaged permanently for what many will say was slandering the world’s most powerful and admired company. Thanks Mike, a lot of good you’ve done. I really hope he’s smart enough to just fade away and not continue to try to defend himself or represent the cause for fair treatment of Chinese workers anymore. He screwed up, he got caught, now he needs to go away and leave the honest people to continue to press the issue. He should be disgraced.

If you’re one of the people who got an iPad 3 today (I almost was but am not going to be for now), please take a moment to think about where it came from and what the people who made it for you went through so you could have your shiny new toy. A lot of this stuff is made in not so nice ways and one guy’s exaggerated tale of those ways doesn’t mean that obscenely rich companies like Apple can’t and shouldn’t do more to address it. We as consumers are the ones with the ultimate power to make things better and there has never been a more important time to do so.

UPDATE: I finally got a chance to listen to the full Retraction episode yesterday. I now have even more respect for This American Life than I did before and even less for Mike Daisey. The show went far and above what was required of them to admit their mistake and it was clear from his tone of voice that Ira Glass is deeply embarrassed and upset. As for Daisey, he did apologise for submitting the episode to them as journalism but still refused to accept responsibility for his lies which he was caught red handed in. He continued to use the “it was just theatre” defense and it clearly demonstrated to me that he has no remorse for what he did, only for getting caught. As I said, the man’s a disgrace to his cause. I was also pleased to hear the third act devoted to talking to the New York Times report I mentioned and addressing the real problems that do exist in China which Daisey used as the stepping stone for his narrative. I am glad they didn’t try to ignore the issue but said “We know we screwed up but this problem is real.” I truly hope that those who listened paid attention to that.

Thankfully, I haven’t seen that much backlash from Apple’s defense force. Even some of those I expected to scream how they’ve somehow been vindicated have either remained quiet or have praised This American Life for doing the right thing. I’m glad for that as the show doesn’t deserve to have its reputation tarnished. If anything, this shows how committed they are to proper journalism. When I have the means, I will be donating money to the show and needless to say, I will keep listening. I hope their listener base doesn’t take much of a hit from this.

The Worries of An Apple Led Post-PC World

So the iPad 3 was announced yesterday (yes I know it’s just called the iPad but it’s the 3rd one so it’s the iPad 3) and as usual, the press tripped over themselves to give them free PR. The mainstream news media which wouldn’t give any other tech launch more than a cursory mention practically live blogged the event and well, the fanboy driven tech press did what it always does with Apple launches, gush like teen girls at a boy band concert, much like the legion of practically religious level Apple enthusiasts who clogged my Twitter feed during the reveal. It’s still gross and in the press’ case, the opposite of journalism but it’s also par for the course now and my getting mad about it is pointless. Truthfully, I was paying closer attention than I usually would because my girlfriend and I were strongly considering splitting the purchase of an iPad 3. She wants it to surf and do e-mail easily when she travels for work and I want it to see if it’s possible for iOS games to hook me in (which they haven’t to this point). Something unexpected happened after work that may result in us moving soon and thus delaying that money being spent for a while but we’ll see.

Among all the gushing comes the usual talking points about the “post-PC world” tablets are supposedly ushering in, points Apple themselves trumpet whenever they can. They are quick to point out that the term doesn’t mean the end of traditional computers (an area where they still make a lot of money) but it does mean a reversal of the current roles where the desktop or laptop is a person’s primary means of computing and the tablet complements that. Tablets don’t really fit in with how I do my day-to-day computing, mostly because I am usually either at home or the office, type at a blistering speed an on-screen keyboard simply can’t keep up with and I’m used to a heavy multitasking environment where I can do and monitor several things at once. You put two copies of myself on a couch with stuff to do and the version of me using my HP ProBook will leave the tablet version of me in the dust. However, I’ll be the first to admit that the way in which I use a computer now is not at all mainstream and this is most certainly a vision based around the mainstream. If my girlfriend and my Mom found themselves using a tablet first and foremost, that’s cool by me as long as I can still have my laptop and gaming desktop too.

Tablets require less material to make, can arguably be priced to be much more accessible than traditional computers (though Apple is trying their damndest to avoid this), can be carried around as easily as a pad of paper and can do most day-to-day computing tasks without even breaking a sweat. I’m not denying the benefits of the “post-PC” world and many elements of it I will welcome. What I do have many concerns with is Apple being the leaders of this world. The original iPad kind of came from nowhere and virtually everyone trying to compete with it has been stumbling over themselves to catch up, while also thinking they can charge similar prices for devices that are simply inferior. As tablets go the iPad is virtually unchallenged and barring some major missteps by Apple or a roaring comeback into the space from Microsoft (whose missteps with Windows 8 will be the subject of a future post), it stands to be that way for the foreseeable future. And this is not good for anyone.

Having a single dominant player in any market is a bad thing because it discourages innovation and leads to higher prices because of reduced competition. One need look no further than when Microsoft Windows was basically your only real choice for a desktop operating system. Poor performance, gaping security flaws, massive product delays, tiny incremental updates and bullying of OEMs were all the orders of the day back then. Apple is still a distant minority in the traditional computing space but they gain ground on Windows every day and the iPad led post-PC world could put the writing on the wall for Microsoft’s key rainmaker. When Apple put their feet to the fire, what we ended up with was Windows 7, arguably the most polished and solid version of Windows ever and a product which I happily use every day and firmly believe is superior to Mac OS. However, even when Microsoft Windows was at its flattest and most stationary, there were a number of key differences of PCs compared to Macs which Microsoft embraced and still does to this day. Apple does not share these values and should they become the dominant player in the market, their continued adherence to them doesn’t do good for the future advancement of computing. Here are some examples of what I mean:

  • Apple likes closed platforms: The original incarnation of iOS didn’t allow third party applications of any kind. This was the way Steve Jobs wanted it because he believed these external influences destabilised the user’s experience and he was right, they do. But after screaming demand from users (and Android right around the corner who embraced third party software), he relented and it was arguably the smartest thing Apple ever did. Apple nonetheless still holds the keys to the kingdom and while they’ll let anyone write apps for iOS, you have to get their permission to make it available and they can refuse you for any reason, including for things like making an app that’s better than one of their stock ones or making a game that raises awareness of their supplier’s factory conditions. The biggest innovations have come from people breaking the mould and disrupting trends with new things. You know, exactly like iOS did. On Windows, you could write any program you wanted and put it out there with permission from no one. In an Apple post-PC world, only one entity has control of what you get access to and they have an agenda that doesn’t always favour innovation. That only benefits them, not the innovators and not the users.
  • Apple hates user choice: Want an iPad? There’s three different memory sizes and you can have it with cellular capability or not. Want an iPhone? There’s 3 of them and they aren’t expandable. Want an iMac? There’s 4 of them. A MacBook? 8. Want a gaming system? Sorry, there isn’t one. Don’t care so much about having a lot of disk space but want a faster CPU? Can’t do that, you pick a template. Want a desktop PC but also use your own monitor setup? You can only do that with a Mac Pro that starts at $2,600. And since the Mac and iOS aren’t open platforms where you have different manufacturers offering different products and competing on price (someone tried to do this with Mac OS and Apple destroyed them for it), you either go with their options at their prices or stay out. For your average mainstream end user, this probably isn’t a big deal but the enthusiast and professional markets are massive and growing and Apple doesn’t care about those. With Windows PCs, you have all the choice you could ever want from a bare bones netbook to an $8,000 gaming rig that will dim the lights on your whole block. There’s something for everyone and it’s easy to find something that will do what you want for the price you’re willing to pay. Which brings me to the next point.
  • Apple products are purposefully overpriced: This is less of a problem than it used to be but it is simple fact that at least when it comes to desktop and laptop computers, Apple products cost substantially more relative to the technical capabilities you’re getting. You show me an iMac and I will show you a PC with similar specs that costs way less. Apple makes something like $200+ on every iPad sold from day one, an utterly obscene profit margin by modern tech industry standards. Now, there’s nothing wrong with a company charging what the market will pay and at least right now, Apple has managed to convince many people that paying hundreds more than a similarly speced competitor’s product makes economic sense. However, the only reason they’re able to do this is again because they have no competition in their space. Yes, we do still have Windows PCs that are fiercely competing on price but remember, we’re talking in the context of a post-PC world where tablets are the de facto standard. Right now, inferior Android tablets are going on sale for the same $500 price as the iPad because Apple has wrongly got it into the heads of the mainstream public that any tablet under that price isn’t worth considering. If we enter a post-PC world that Apple largely controls, the cost of computing will go up substantially, making it harder for less wealthy people to get into and thus, reducing the number of people using what is now a fundamental part of everyday life. Competition is key to lower prices, innovation and accessibility and with Apple running things, there would be no such competition.
  • Apple believes they still own the products you buy: If you have an iPad, iPhone or iPod and want to load media or apps on it, you do it through iTunes. Period. A Mac App Store is already available and many believe software on Mac OS will eventually go the same way. On Android, there are multiple app stores that compete to offer the best products and prices and on Windows, you can get software in literally thousands of different ways to suit your preference. On iOS, there is no such thing unless you jailbreak your device (which of course voids the warranty and locks you out of future updates). Apple claims this is in the interest of making sure the user experience is always seamless and reliable but that’s a thin smokescreen. In reality, it’s structured this way to make sure anything you do with that device has to be approved by and more importantly, purchased through them. Apple takes a substantial cut of every single thing sold through iTunes and as with hardware, it’s not in their interest to let you shop elsewhere where they can’t control the experience and more importantly, their slice of the action. So after paying a minimum of $500 for your new iPad, Apple still believes they have the right to tell you how to use it and if you don’t agree, you don’t get to play in their sandbox. This is incredibly arrogant and despite what their carefully curated marketing tells you, this isn’t about ensuring a great experience for you but about how much they steer you into exclusively giving them more money, even after you’ve already given them a lot of it. In other words, they still believe they have a right to control your device, even after you’ve paid for it. As anyone who has used Windows 7 on a capable PC will say, you can have an open platform with choice and still have a rock solid, pleasing experience. You don’t have to wall it up for things to work well.
  • Apple is becoming a patent troll: There’s no denying that at least right now, Android based tablet competitors can’t hold a candle to the iPad. Frankly, Google and their partners need to get their act together and fast because every month they don’t bring out an iPad killer, more Android loyalists get fed up with waiting and go to the Apple camp. Windows 8 is also a long way off and we have no idea how that’s going to go. Beyond that though, there is another darker reason for this. Apple has been on a patent bender for the last several years, locking down everything they can and threatening Android partners with potentially bank-breaking lawsuits. They are already locked in many such fights across Europe. One of the main reasons Google bought Motorola Mobility for billions of dollars a while back was just to lock up their patent portfolio in order to use it to stare down Apple. Yes, lots of companies are doing this and yes, much of this is a result of an American patent system that’s broken to the point of absurdity. I don’t deny that but one also can’t deny that Apple is a company with $100 billion in cash with no end in sight, they don’t need the money and patents aren’t like trademarks, you don’t lose them if you just sit on them and don’t sue everyone. They’re doing this to bleed their competitors dry and trying to stop other, potentially better devices from entering the market alongside theirs. This isn’t an innovating marketplace of ideas, this is Apple trying to use their massive cash reserves to bully out anyone who can mount a threat to them. If they truly stand behind their products, then they should be able to stand on their own and if someone uses a slightly similar case design or the magnetic charging connector, they should have nothing to worry about if their stuff is still better. Using the courts to stop competition is manipulating the market and that doesn’t serve consumers.

You’ll notice one common theme in all those points: Choice or in Apple’s case, lack thereof. Everything Apple has built their impressive and continuing success on is based around restraining user choices which keeps prices high and ultimately, limits innovation only to their own and the ones they permit. So far this strategy seems to be working for them and probably will as long as they can string out the fashion trend that’s fuelling their current growth. But competition is what made the PC strong and it was a need to compete in new and creative ways that made Apple invent iOS and all its associated devices in the first place. Now that they are ruling the roost (at least as far as tablets go), their objective is about shrinking the scope of choice down and that’s something that only benefits them, not the customers and not the high-tech industry as a whole. Microsoft was accused, tried and heavily fined and regulated in Europe and almost in the US for doing far less nefarious things than that what I listed above. They were considered an evil predator but Apple does the same and in some cases worse and is considered a pioneering innovator.

Is a company who does all of what I’ve written and more the one you want having dominance of the post-PC world? I don’t know if I am. If you’re a hardcore Apple fan, you’ve likely blown off what I’ve written as me just being another hater who dislikes the top dog and that’s not what I am. Keep in mind, I almost bought an iPad 3 today and the only reason I didn’t was because of an unexpected event that should it not pan out, will have me considering the purchase again. I don’t want to see Apple fail, I just don’t want to see them being the only ones who have a say in the post-PC future.

Apple has done one thing exceedingly well: They took a very bloated, arrogant and stagnant high-tech industry and shoved a massive wad of humble pie in its face, almost overnight. That’s damn impressive and the shake up is exactly what the industry needed. I thank them for bringing about that change. However, I believe the tides have changed too quickly and even when they were almost down and out, Apple and their devoted fans were still incredibly arrogant. If they control the post-PC world, the same problems we faced before could be faced again, only with a different company at the top and no one in a position to challenge them. That’s bad for the industry, bad for consumers and bad for innovation. I truly hope that some of Apple’s competitors who are still scrambling to find their feet manage to do so and mount a proper fight. And I really hope that as consumers get more tech savvy, that they start to realise that Apple is supposed to work for them, not the other way around.

The post-PC world has the potential to be awesome and revolutionary but for it to realise its full potential, user choice must be at the forefront of it. In their current form, that’s not what Apple wants.

How RIM Can (Maybe) Save Itself

I’ve been thinking about making a post like this for a while now and in light of yesterday’s big news, I figured there’s no better a time than now.

I’ve been a mostly happy BlackBerry user for almost seven years now. I received my first one when I was hired on with Geek Squad Canada (I just felt a chill mentioning that name), I bought my own in 2008 and when I started with my current employer, they took over my plan and gave me another one. Just a couple of weeks ago, our entire company upgraded to shiny new Bold 9900s. They’re arguably the best BlackBerries ever made but I will say that if my employer wasn’t paying for my cell service, I would have probably bought an Android phone. I’ve always liked the fact that their phones are well made, easy to use and while not feature and app rich, do what they do very well. To this day, there is no better a single device for handling e-mail and phone calls, especially in a business environment. What BlackBerry maker Research In Motion has failed to understand the last several years is that’s no longer enough. Consumers, not enterprise are driving the epic growth in smartphones right now and they’ve made it abundantly clear that what they want is apps, media capabilities, speed and pretty interfaces. For all my legitimate problems with Apple this is something they, Android and to a lesser extent, Microsoft with Windows Phone 7 understand well. BlackBerries are very good at what they do but compared to the competition, they’re basic at best. They have an anaemic app landscape, they’re underpowered and while their interface is functional, it’s not what I would call eye-grabbing. Their attempt at a tablet with the PlayBook was a very nice piece of hardware with a nice operating system running it but it lacked some of the most boneheadedly fundamental features such as e-mail, calendar and contacts unless you were prepared to endure the hassle of pairing it with a BlackBerry phone as well. As a result, an otherwise nice device has been a dismal failure, even after steep price cuts.

In short, they’re out of touch with what the biggest growth segment in smartphones and tablets wants. Consumers have responded by driving RIM’s market share from total domination down to estimates as low as 15% by the end of last year. Their stock price has tanked (they were once Canada’s most valuable company) and they have managed to cling to profitability but only because they keep swinging the axe on staff every couple of months. Most of these failures can be attributed to their (now ex) Co-CEOs, Jim Balsillie and Mike Lazaridis. These two men have an impressive legacy. They started RIM from scratch, invented the smartphone as we know it (something many people forget) and led their Waterloo startup to stratospheric heights. Then Apple and Google got into the game. Unfortunately, the great danger faced by many who go unchallenged for too long–an inflated ego–took hold of them and they more or less refused to acknowledge the changing times, hoping that by looking at the ground and putting their fingers in their ears, they could just shut out what was happening around them. They thought that people were loyal to BlackBerry and that what they wanted was function over form. While there are people like me who will often agree with that sentiment, the public likes shiny things more, something Apple has done an exceptional job of proving. RIM still does business class devices like no one else but it’s only a matter of time until they are challenged in that arena as well. When you try to create a product for consumers and have it designed solely by engineers, disaster in the market is often the result. BlackBerry devices go a step further than that: Their vision was crafted by mathematicians.

All is not lost however. For the time being, Research In Motion is still is good financial condition. As of this writing they have zero debt, $1.31 billion in cash on hand and even with their stock at a fraction of what it once was, a market cap of $8.02 billion. That’s nothing to sneeze at and though they’ve only managed to maintain profitability by slicing and dicing their workforce, they are nonetheless still profitable. They arguably have the resources to mount a huge restructuring, nay reboot of the company both operationally and from a vision and design standpoint and there has never been a better or more important time for that than right now. I am certainly no business expert but I do know a Hell of a lot about technology trends and based on what I’ve seen, I’d like to offer the following humble suggestions to RIM:

  • Fire Balsillie and Lazaridis and replace them with a new visionary who understands design and consumer products: They did indeed fire them (yeah yeah they “resigned”, that just means being fired while saving face) and their replacement (former COO Thorsten Heins) is another member of the old guard who was hand picked by them and whose stated vision is “I don’t think there is a drastic change needed.” Swing and a miss. If he was being promoted on a temporary basis until another replacement could be found I could understand it but apparently this is the guy they think will lead RIM to a triumphant return. Given the beating their stock price took today, it appears shareholders agree with me that this is facepalm worthy. The old guard’s arrogance is what put RIM in their current situation, doubling down on a strategy that doesn’t work is not the path to success. Look at the recording industry for an example of this. What the company needs is someone from the outside who has no vested interest or relationships with the current entrenched senior staff. Someone who isn’t afraid to jettison what isn’t working and make sweeping changes to the product line, the software and the overall creative vision. In short, as much as it pains me to say it, RIM needs their Steve Jobs. The new CEO of Nokia wasn’t afraid to undertake a strategy like this. He came in, promptly partnered with Microsoft for Windows Phone 7 and said they were dumping the Symbian operating system because it wasn’t working anymore. He pissed a lot of people off when he did that but the fruits of that decision are starting to show and almost everyone thinks Nokia will be better for it. People like this are out there, RIM needs one and fast.
  • Find the best designers you can find and spend whatever it takes to get them: Design in both the hardware and software experience is key to any consumer facing smartphone or tablet. RIM actually has some very good hardware engineers who know how to build comfortable, super reliable and relatively elegant hardware. It’s also bulky, utilitarian and frankly, kind of ugly. Their OS suffers similar problems. BlackBerry OS has made some aesthetic improvements since v6 but it still has a long way to go to compete with Android, Windows Phone 7 and iOS. Each of these systems has something that makes it unique and appealing from a visual and usability standpoint. For Android it’s widgets, for Windows Phone 7 it’s the metro tiles and for iOS, it’s the bubbly icons and menu elements. All of these are backed up by responsive controls and smooth animations which just make them feel good to use. BlackBerry needs its own variant of this, an identity for its user interface that’s attractive and unique to the platform. There is no shortage of amazing design talent out there and some of the best are at your competitors. Hire the best headhunters, let these designers name their price and give it to them as well as the creative freedom needed to do the next step.
  • Nuke the ecosystem and start fresh: I like the BlackBerry OS quite a bit but it’s long in the tooth and it’s simply not up to the task of enchanting the public in its current form. It’s true that they have announced BBX as the successor and it will be based on the polished QNX base that powers the PlayBook which is a step in the right direction. However, it still clings to a lot of the user interface and under the hood technologies from the old system and that’s not a big enough change. RIM made a smart investment when they bought QNX and putting their kernel under the hood is a good idea but everything else (and I mean everything else) about the BlackBerry experience needs to be wiped out and redone from a blank piece of paper. Design new phones, design a new tablet, design a whole new OS with a whole new interface, give them powerful guts (a really good camera would help too), pre-load them with really snazzy apps and for the love of everything, ditch the current naming convention that relies on boring adjectives and nouns and worse yet, indistinguishable numbers. I’ve been a user of your products for years and I can’t keep them all straight.
  • Make good developer tools and court the community: I don’t write software but I know people who do and the chief complaint I hear about BlackBerry versus other platforms is that the developer tools suck hard. They’re not easy to use, the reliance on Java hinders performance and cross-platform portability and App World is a headache to use for both developers and end users. RIM has made some statements lately they they know they haven’t been as good towards developers as they should have been (at least they’re finally admitting it) but their solution seems to be the Android emulation layer they’re pushing as a cornerstone of BBX, rather than writing all new, intuitive tools for their own platform. I think that’s the wrong way to look at it. Sure, making BBX able to run Android code sounds good because it gives them instant access to the existing Android app ecosystem and developer community but there are problems. Firstly Android software is designed for phones with large, long touch screens. The only model RIM sells that has one is the BlackBerry Torch. My new Bold 9900 has a touch screen but it’s small and square, not long and rectangular. That means most Android software won’t fit on it and asking developers to design a version of their UI for one phone’s very different screen size is a fool’s errand. Secondly BBX will not run Android apps natively, it will do so through emulation meaning that the BlackBerry will essentially pretend it’s an Android phone, at least as far as the app is concerned. Emulation by its very nature is much slower because the app essentially is being “translated” in real time as it runs. It also often introduces compatibility problems as many developers will use unique programming tricks to squeeze extra power out of a device and emulators often can’t interpret these tricks properly. There’s no way RIM can overcome these problems without either putting processors in their devices that far outweigh what’s in current Android devices (thus making theirs too expensive) or spending an inordinate amount of developer time and user hassle keeping the emulation layer current and super optimised. That’s not worth it and those resources are clearly better spent developing top notch tools for your own platform, rather than trying to piggyback off someone else’s as a band aid solution. Once they have the tools, the next step is to court the community to write native versions of their software for your platform. How do you do that? Give them hardware and if necessary, money. Find the most popular app and game developers on iOS and Android, give them free phones and tablets to develop with, give them a robust and well staffed support and community system and if that isn’t enough, offer to fund the BlackBerry versions of their titles. Consider going to major middleware providers like Unity and Epic Games and offer to co-fund development of BlackBerry editions of their technology. You might even want to consider buying yourselves a couple of high profile exclusives. Ask Kairosoft, Halfbrick or if you must, Rovio how much it would take to make their next projects exclusive to BlackBerry.
  • Market like you’ve never marketed before: Your current ads are confusing, don’t really preach the merits of your products beyond quick shots and really just show supposedly famous people (who really no one’s heard of) using them. That’s not good enough. People by and large don’t want to buy your stuff because a celebrity was paid to say it’s good. People want to buy your stuff because it looks cool. Every Apple commercial is just a narrator talking over (and sometimes not even that) someone doing cool stuff with their products up close. Don’t sell who uses your stuff, sell why those people and the ones watching want to use your stuff.

All of these suggestions are going to cost a lot of money, this I know. It will involve tapping a lot of the cash RIM has left and likely taking on some debt too. This is also probably a two or three year plan at least. Until it can be implemented, they’ll simply have to try to make due with keeping their current base of business and cash-strapped students happy to stay afloat. No one ever claimed rebooting a failing company was cheap or easy. This is a risky endeavour and should it fail, it will definitely kill the company. However, things aren’t working now and if the choice is to burn out fighting or bleed to death in the corner, I think the former is preferable and will leave a much better legacy. If RIM is going to do this, it needs to do it while it has cash in the bank, not while it’s gasping for air. Such a strategy would be the company’s last push but should it succeed, it will put them squarely back in the smartphone and tablet fight and could catapult them to a high point again. It’s something that will go down as one of the high tech industry’s biggest blunders or biggest turnaround success stories.

RIM has an impressive past behind it that will always be admired but the past is not how you make money and it isn’t how you satisfy investors. The smartphone and tablet space needs more competition, not less and dammit, we have some huge technology innovators in Canada, we should be a big part of that! The question now is, does RIM let old thinking continue to drive them into the ground or are they will to let the past be just that and embark on a new potential path to redemption and future success? You guys can save yourselves, it’s just a question of whether you have the balls to seize the chance while you can afford it. Step up and start a revolution!

On Gaming’s Future: What does Angry Birds really represent?

Chances are if you own a mobile phone, use the Internet or really just breathe oxygen, you’ve heard of Angry Birds. In an massively and increasingly popular mobile game landscape this cutesy puzzle game, originally released in 2009, has taken the world by storm selling numbers never seen before, being ported to pretty much anything with a screen and spawning a popular line of merchandise. It has catapulted Finnish developer Rovio from a small contract developer to a media empire, with their ego ballooning at a similar pace. With this admirable success comes the speculation from various corners that this is where the video game industry will start to take queues from and that it shows how the real money isn’t in multi-million dollar console blockbusters but in small mobile games that don’t cost much to develop or purchase. Mobile games as a whole is a much bigger discussion which will be had in another post but Angry Birds goes beyond being simply a mobile game and is a force unto itself. Respected gaming journalists say that the hardcore ignores and decries Angry Birds at our own peril and that to turn a blind eye to it is trying to shut out where things could end up going. I think there’s wisdom to be taken from that but I also think while it’s time to stop ignoring Angry Birds, it’s also important to remember that one game’s unique level of success does not necessarily represent a trend, nor does it erase a past formula that has worked for a long time.

Having played Angry Birds on the PC through Chrome, my impressions are fairly flat. It’s a competently made physics puzzle game with a cute aesthetic and hits the most important design point for mobile games which is that it’s easy to pick up quickly and play in short sessions. It does nothing innovative or that other games haven’t arguably done better before, nor is it a genre that’s particularly challenging from a creative point of view. No one is certain why this particular title became so popular when there are a bazillion clones out there, including many similar titles that came out before it. Personally, like FarmVille before I think Rovio just managed to hit a magic sweet spot with the cartoony graphics, a simple and easy to remember title, levels that are easy to understand but later can become hard to master and happened to release right when mobile gaming was starting its revolutionary period. In other words, they made a good game but also got incredibly lucky. As reductive as that sounds, there is still no denying that a lot of design chops went into this game and Rovio is to be commended for that.

The theory posed by some is that Angry Birds is showing that people like myself who like hardcore games with depth and complexity need to stop ignoring it because it’s not what most people want and it’s showing that the money’s in simpler titles. I can see where one would form that opinion but there’s a couple of kinks. Firstly, I don’t think anyone in the hardcore community is ignoring Angry Birds. We all know what it is and chances are we’ve played it. The thing is, it’s over two years old now and it didn’t hit critical mass until 2010. Hardcore gamers move between titles quickly because well, we’re hardcore gamers. To say that we’re ignoring a product because we aren’t talking about it this far into its life cycle is to say that we aren’t doing what we as a community do. In a world where games generally have flash in the pan life spans, it is impressive that Angry Birds still keeps the public consciousness at large so engaged after all this time. But hardcore gamers are not the mainstream public and saying that sites which cater to us should be focusing on this game is like saying that USA Today should have a section dedicated to theoretical physics. It’s just not what we as a community are interested in and even though more enthusiast sites are covering mobile games, they’re covering the new ones.

Secondly and more importantly, who can name another title on iOS that has sold anywhere close to the number that Angry Birds has? I’ll give you a hint: There isn’t one. This is the same argument that people used with FarmVille as proof that Facebook was the future of all video games. Except that nothing comes close to FarmVille’s numbers, not even the myriad of other Ville games released by the same developer since. While its success is admirable, it’s only a trend if it continues with other titles as well. Sure, there’s tons of other very successful games on iOS but nothing has been able to touch Angry Birds’ numbers and there’s nothing on the horizon that looks like it will. That’s not a trend people, that’s a fluke. Given that Rovio seems to be doubling down on the franchise and hasn’t even made a whisper about doing something else–despite having made enough money to absorb numerous flops–they don’t seem confident that the public at large will take to something new and different. They know that people aren’t buying Angry Birds because it’s a Rovio game, they’re buying it because it’s Angry Birds. If they can’t attach that name to another product, they’re basically starting with zero brand awareness again. Mojang, who released the amazing breakout PC hit Minecraft has has the same problem with the multiple new projects they’ve announced. Everyone out there knows Minecraft, no one really knows Mojang and Minecraft’s awareness is not going to be what drives sales of their next release. Since Minecraft also has a large hardcore gamer community with it, I’d say Rovio’s challenges are even greater since most of their players are people who wouldn’t call themselves gamers at all and say, follow the developers on Twitter.

This is not to deny the success of Angry Birds. It’s monumental and having even a sliver of the money this small Finnish company has amassed in such a short time would be considered massive success by any aspiring game developer. The CEO of Rovio will be the first to tell you that I’m sure. However, I think many people are overestimating just how big an impact this will have on the industry as a whole and that this represents a shift in public mindshare that just isn’t there yet. If we start seeing even half a dozen titles a year sell at this level, then I think we have something to talk about. Until then, we’ve got a single middling puzzle game that has done extremely well and while that’s something to observe, it’s evidence of only one thing that we already knew: Sometimes, certain single things achieve massive success. For Rovio to claim that they understand the gaming industry better than Nintendo does is incredibly arrogant and frankly, they haven’t earned the right to make such statements yet. If their next game does as well as Angry Birds, I may be inclined to say they’ve got something right. However, one title’s success does not a trend represent. Angry Birds is an important game but it as yet represents nothing in the long term. When it does, you can be sure the hardcore community will start talking about it again.

Has mobile phone technology peaked for a while?

Unless you are not on the Internet (in which case you aren’t reading this anyway), you already know that Apple had their big press event to launch the new iPhone. They put out a bunch of heavily manipulated and juked stats that as usual, the press responded to with enthusiasm instead of the skepticism anyone else would have gotten and eventually, got to what everyone was there for: The iPhone 4S. Yep, no iPhone 5 this time around. The response from what I’ve seen online has been a resounding “Meh”. Boiled down to cold reality, the iPhone 4s is little more than an iPhone 4 with beefier stats, a 64GB SKU and at least in the US, availability on three carriers simultaneously at launch.

The highlights include using the same dual-core processor that the iPad 2 has (something most software developers are not utilising right now because requiring it means you alienate all previous model owners), a nicer 8MP camera and an apparently new antenna design that may actually you know, work. The biggest innovation is Siri, a new voice control system that allows a potentially crazy amount of flexibility and control, allowing you to arguably control most of the phone’s functions without touching it. It’s cool but likely doesn’t work nearly as well in the real world as in the demo and it’s not something I think most people will use for fear of looking weird in public. Apple’s stock price took a drop after it was revealed that the phone is not revolutionary, something which I think clearly demonstrates how volatile and dangerous the culture Apple creates can be. But I’m not here to be a mouthpiece for everything they’ve said, the press will take care of that for us all.

What struck me most in thinking about this was that as cool as Siri is, I think it was rolled out more to give Apple a big new selling point for the iPhone 4S rather than “Look, it’s the same thing, only slightly faster!” which is really all this update is. Siri requires the new processor to work so it is in fact something you can only get on the newest model. I think the main reason it didn’t see a revolutionary spec bump is because cell phone technology has come as far as it can for the time being. The only innovation they didn’t embrace with this that other phone manufacturers have is 4G, a technology whose current crop of chipsets destroy battery life and which is still only available in limited markets. Given the insane rise in power and features of smartphones from 2007 until now (something which blindsided many companies like RIM but that’s another post), I’m not at all surprised that advancement has slowed. Clueless stockholders are no doubt panicking that Apple has run out of ideas or something but come on, you can’t advance a segment of technology so fast and not eventually bump your head on the ceiling. This obviously doesn’t mean that things can’t improve further or that more innovations aren’t already being designed in labs. However, technological advancement eventually does reach a point where no matter how many engineers you throw at it, there are just some obstacles in the way (be they in design, manufacturing, implementation or just plain raw cost) that just can’t be solved in a single year. No doubt bigger things are coming but I think the crazy pace of evolution with smartphones is going to slow down a fair bit and I think the mega “world changing” announcements are going to come less frequently and be a little less impactful.

None of the other smartphone makers have the engineering and design resources Apple does but if any of them have some new killer feature they’ve been keeping in a drawer, now’s the time to spend a ton of R&D and PR money and make a huge splash with it. The iPhone 4S will of course sell like gangbusters (in many cases, to people who still have perfectly good iPhone 4s) but if there was ever a time when Apple was “down”, this is it and it’s time to seize the day. It will be interesting to see what the next big innovation is but I think people were a bit naive if they thought that the pace we’ve seen in the smartphone space could continue uninterrupted. Sometimes, you just run out of cool new stuff for a while.

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